Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge
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Aug 1, 2025 The podcast dives into unexpected resilience in the economy, analyzing surprising GDP readings and their implications for second-half forecasts. Experts discuss mixed signals from the labor market, like rising wages amidst slowing job growth, and how these factors might affect Federal Reserve decisions. The complexities of consumer spending amidst inflation concerns are examined, alongside the impact of trade wars on economic predictions. Lastly, the discussion highlights ongoing inflation trends and their potential influence on central bank interest rates.
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Strong GDP but Slowing Momentum
- Second quarter GDP globally exceeded initial forecasts, showing above-trend growth at about 2.5%.
- However, industry momentum is slowing, indicating potential upcoming deceleration despite current strength.
Cautious Signal from US Jobs
- The US labor market shows slowing private sector hiring but no labor shedding or rising unemployment.
- This softening labor demand signals caution despite stable unemployment rates.
Data Confirms Industrial Downshift
- Recent PMI and retail sales data confirm a downshift in global industry and consumer goods spending, with possible contraction.
- This supports expectations of a sharp slowdown and elevated recession risks in coming months.