Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
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Jun 20, 2025 Anticipated global growth slowdown and evolving inflation dynamics are examined, influenced by trade wars and Middle Eastern tensions. The speakers discuss mixed economic indicators and their implications for central bank policies. They highlight the resilience of market dynamics despite overarching economic weaknesses, alongside the balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Additionally, insights into PMI trends reveal contrasting economic performances across regions, providing a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape.
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Global Growth Slowing Outlook
- The global economy is expected to slow significantly in the second half of the year, dropping below 1.5% growth globally.
- Risks skew slightly upside for modest misses, but larger surprises tend toward recession with about 40% risk.
Emerging Softness, Early Signs
- Early signs of economic softness are emerging, but it's too soon for clear evidence of the forecasted second-half slowdown.
- The outlook remains uncertain and can be interpreted optimistically or pessimistically depending on perspective.
US Growth Revisions and Risks
- The US economic slowdown is tracking a weaker path than originally forecast, leading to upward revisions in short-term growth.
- Risks remain skewed to the downside, with potential for a pronounced slowdown later in the year.