Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag
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Aug 8, 2025 In this enlightening discussion, Tingting Ge, a Greater China Economist at J.P. Morgan, delves into China's shifting role in global inflation dynamics. She explores the effects of renewed U.S. tariffs, highlighting how they haven't led to expected price drops among Chinese exporters. The conversation also tackles China's excess capacity, government strategies to boost consumption, and the nuanced impacts of currency fluctuations on global markets. Join them as they unpack these complexities and their implications for the future.
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Exporters Aren't Cutting Prices
- Chinese export prices in CNY and USD have risen about 3–5% year-to-date, not fallen.
- Exporters absorbed very little of the 30 percentage-point tariff increase, passing costs to U.S. buyers.
Transshipments And Front‑Loading Resilient Exports
- Tingting Ge says front-loading and transshipments offset tariff shocks in H1, keeping shipments resilient.
- China routed goods via ASEAN and other hubs, delaying clear trade diversion away from the U.S.
Prioritize Services Over Goods
- Tingting Ge urges policymakers to focus on services consumption rather than boosting goods subsidies.
- Expanding services spending offers more scope to rebalance China's consumption mix and raise domestic demand.