Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed
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Sep 5, 2025 The podcast dives into the latest economic data, highlighting a clash between strong growth signals and concerns about labor market slowdowns. Discussions reveal complexities in the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies amidst shifting economic indicators. There’s an examination of the disconnect between tariff revenues and consumer spending, alongside impacts from recent immigration trends. The analysis extends to contrasting growth forecasts and the challenges of predicting the economic landscape, all wrapped up with a light-hearted look at future meetings.
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Growth Signals Clash With Weak Payrolls
- U.S. data shows a tension: strong survey expenditure signals versus weakening job growth and rising downside tail risk.
- Weak payrolls cut third-quarter income tracking from ~5% to ~3%, raising recession risk and Fed easing pressure.
Labor Income Transmission Is The Key Risk
- Weak labor income transmission makes the jobs slowdown more troubling for demand and consumption.
- Equity wealth gains may partly offset income weakness, but the labor-income channel remains key to near-term consumer risk.
Recession Or Limp Growth — And A Puzzle
- Two main U.S. scenarios: a plain-vanilla recession or a limp-along low-growth path around 1–1.5% GDP.
- The puzzle: robust CapEx and GDP tracking versus near-zero job growth suggest a compositional shift or measurement gaps.