Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…
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Oct 3, 2025 The US government shutdown is creating significant gaps in economic data, hindering assessments of growth. While PMIs exhibit resilience, employment signals a concerning stall in global job growth. There's an intriguing debate over the sustainability of the recent surge in US consumer spending amid changing labor trends. The Fed appears likely to implement insurance cuts, balancing risks in a complex global outlook. The discussion also highlights the fading impact of tech growth on regional manufacturing and the nuanced trajectories of inflation.
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Data Blackout Raises Narrative Risk
- The US government shutdown removed key monthly data like payrolls and CPI, reducing visibility into the economy.
- That loss weakens our ability to judge whether growth is productivity-led or a cautionary pullback.
PMIs Signal Resilience But Weakening Employment
- PMIs still point to resilience but show weakening momentum, especially in employment components.
- Employment PMIs suggest global employment growth is stalling, raising downside risk to the cycle.
Mixed Alt-Data Versus CapEx And Consumer Strength
- Alternative US high-frequency indicators are mixed but skew toward slowing momentum in jobs and hiring.
- That contrasts with strong CapEx and consumer goods spending, creating a confusing macro picture.