Global Data Pod

Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China.  A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread.   Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4882648-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885198-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns around US policy reinforce these views but are also raising financial and macro risks that have both a directional and timing uncertainty. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Kasman This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the region’s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the shock itself is likely to be more acute (potentially larger increase in tariffs with the transshipment escape-valve closed). Moreover, the policy space to respond – especially on fiscal – is more constrained this time. So the collateral damage on the region, while differentiated across countries, is likely to be larger than commonly presumed.   This podcast was recorded on January 09, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4866513-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This discussion dives into the evolving landscape of global economic trends and inflation dynamics. The speakers analyze US policy changes expected from the new administration, particularly impacting trade and immigration. They explore mixed signals from global manufacturing and the resilience of inflation, while reflecting on the prospects for growth amidst uncertainties. Insights on China's economic performance and local inflation trends enrich the conversation, emphasizing the careful balance needed in economic forecasting for the upcoming year.

The podcast dives into the optimistic outlook for global manufacturing, particularly driven by Asian economies. Discussion centers on positive retail sales trends in the US and how central banks are adjusting policies amid inflation challenges. Attention is given to the contrasting strategies of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in navigating these economic waters. The hosts also share light moments reflecting on holiday plans, blending serious economic insights with festive cheer.

In this engaging discussion, Vinicius Moreira, an economist at J.P. Morgan focusing on Brazil, and Tingting Ge, a specialist in the Chinese economy, dive into the complexities of emerging market ties to China. They explore how China's post-pandemic GDP growth slowdown impacts EM commodity exporters. The guests highlight China's strategy of stockpiling commodities while relocating supply chains and caution about the effects of rising U.S. tariffs. The conversation emphasizes the interconnected nature of global trade and the strategic shifts emerging markets may need to adopt in response.

Recent economic data reveals robust global growth, with the U.S. and China leading the charge, while Europe struggles. The discussion delves into labor market dynamics, highlighting low turnover rates in the U.S. and contrasting conditions in Western Europe. Inflation challenges loom as central banks navigate divergent monetary policies. There’s cautious optimism around industrial activity and job growth, alongside predictions for future adjustments in rate cuts and overall economic strategies.

Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various risk scenarios.   This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852356-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes.   This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Nora Szentivanyi This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.