Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent
19 snips
Aug 29, 2025 Explore the surprising resilience of the global economy despite a softening U.S. labor market and ongoing trade challenges. Delve into the Federal Reserve's balancing act between independence and inflation, and the implications for future policies. Discover how businesses are adjusting to rising pressures and what this means for potential growth trajectories. Historical perspectives shed light on market reactions to crises, while worries about stagnation loom large for regions like Europe and Japan, contrasting with tech advancements in Asia.
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Global Growth Surprises And Risks
- Global growth has surprised to the upside with stronger-than-expected Q2 and tracking Q3 momentum, especially in the US.
- Key risks remain from lagging tariff and immigration shocks that could still dent labor markets and growth.
CapEx Strength But Manufacturing Weakness
- CapEx and profits are stronger than expected, supporting GDP and underlying demand across markets.
- But manufacturing, exports, and survey subcomponents remain weak and trade shocks may still hit with delay.
Firms Absorbing Tariff Costs
- Businesses have absorbed a notable portion of tariff costs while still generating earnings growth, reducing immediate vulnerability.
- However, slower payroll growth and potential pass-through of tariff costs keep recession risk elevated.