Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
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Sep 26, 2025 Nora Szentivanyi chats with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist and policy analyst focused on euro-area inflation and wages. They dissect the latest CPI reports, highlighting persistent core inflation and its global impact on services. Raphael explains the dynamics of euro-area services and wage pressures, while discussing tariff effects on core goods and the influence of China. They also explore fluctuations in energy prices and their implications for inflation, along with the significance of food inflation in monetary policy decisions.
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Core Inflation Is Stubbornly Sticky
- Global core inflation remains sticky, running around a 3.1% annualized pace through August.
- Services inflation is a key driver of this stickiness across regions, preventing clear progress toward 2%.
Energy And Food Are Lifting Headline Inflation
- Energy declines that supported consumers have reversed and the three-month run rate for energy is now positive.
- Combined with rising food prices, headline inflation has strengthened to roughly a 3% pace over three months to August.
European Services Are Firm But Wage Pressures Fade
- Europe has shown firmer services inflation recently, running near 2.5% and surprising forecasts.
- However, wage inflation in Europe is declining, which should ease services price pressure into 2026.