Raphael Brun-Aguerre

Nora Szentivanyi chats with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist and policy analyst focused on euro-area inflation and wages. They dissect the latest CPI reports, highlighting persistent core inflation and its global impact on services. Raphael explains the dynamics of euro-area services and wage pressures, while discussing tariff effects on core goods and the influence of China. They also explore fluctuations in energy prices and their implications for inflation, along with the significance of food inflation in monetary policy decisions.

In this enlightening discussion, Michael Hanson, a sharp economist specializing in US and Canada analyses at J.P. Morgan, joins Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an expert on Euro-area economic trends. They delve into how May's softer inflation might not last, with tariffs pushing US core inflation to rise. The duo also explores the Euro area's promising shift toward a stable 2% core HICP, examining trade dynamics and geopolitical influences on global inflation. Expect insights on the disinflationary effects of US trade policy and central bank responses amid ever-evolving economic landscapes.

Raphael Brun-Aguerre from JPMorgan's European economics team and Aditya Chordia, a European rate strategist, dive into the intricate ties between French political dynamics and macroeconomic outlooks. They discuss President Macron's strategies for navigating political instability and the implications for investment behaviors. The conversation pivots to the impact of political announcements on bond markets and the widening spreads between French and German bonds. They also explore trends in the Eurodollar landscape amid fiscal uncertainties, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook.