Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide
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Jan 6, 2026 Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Euro area economist, explore upcoming inflation trends. They discuss how global core inflation has dropped to 2.1% and ponder whether this disinflation will stick around. Hanson delves into U.S. CPI data influenced by the government shutdown, while Brun-Aguerre highlights Europe’s wage trends impacting inflation. The duo also examines the implications of tariffs and trade dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic, plus the risk of AI-related price shifts.
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Temporary Fall In Global Inflation Momentum
- Global core inflation momentum fell sharply to a 2.1% annualized three-month rate by November.
- The hosts caution this drop likely won’t persist and expect a rebound above 3% in 1H26.
US Shutdown Distorted CPI Readings
- The US CPI was biased lower by data carry-forwards after the government shutdown, affecting October and part of November.
- Michael Hanson expects this distortion to fade and push measured inflation higher in coming months.
Prepare For Gradual Tariff Pass-Through
- Watch for tariff pass-through to raise US goods inflation gradually through 1H26.
- Anticipate a delayed, spread-out peak rather than an immediate sharp spike in pass-through effects.