Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports. Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years. This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.
This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026.
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