Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down
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Oct 31, 2025 Joseph Lupton, a senior macro economist, breaks down the latest growth risks and their impact on inflation and central bank policies. He discusses how a recent government shutdown could potentially trigger a contraction in the labor market. Joe highlights rebounds in global industries and warns that sustained growth might reignite inflation, particularly in the service sector. He debates the implications of AI investment and examines how tariffs and immigration policies could drag on economic activity. The conversation winds down with insights on the recent U.S.-China meeting and its trade implications.
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Growth Outlook Is Tensioned Between Resilience And Risks
- Joseph Lupton highlights a growing tension: third-quarter resilience vs. looming downside headwinds like trade and labor risks.
- He flags increasing upside risk but warns shocks (e.g., shutdown) can turn vulnerability into contraction.
Stronger Growth Risks Reviving Inflation
- Lupton warns robust growth plus entrenched 3% inflation undermines a Goldilocks scenario of falling inflation.
- He argues extra global GDP growth would pressure service inflation and central bank focus.
Monitor Central Bank Messaging Closely
- Track central bank messaging: trimmed downside risks shift focus back to inflation and reduce easing expectations.
- Expect less dovish signals from central banks and adjust rate forecasts accordingly.