Joseph Lupton

Joseph Lupton, a senior macro economist, breaks down the latest growth risks and their impact on inflation and central bank policies. He discusses how a recent government shutdown could potentially trigger a contraction in the labor market. Joe highlights rebounds in global industries and warns that sustained growth might reignite inflation, particularly in the service sector. He debates the implications of AI investment and examines how tariffs and immigration policies could drag on economic activity. The conversation winds down with insights on the recent U.S.-China meeting and its trade implications.

Bruce Kasman, a leading mind in economic analysis, and Joseph Lupton, an expert on market trends, delve into the nuances of the current economic climate. They highlight disappointing PMI indicators and reassess expectations for manufacturing versus services. The duo discusses the implications of employment dynamics and rising unemployment on economic cycles, illustrated through amusing baseball metaphors. With a cautious eye on the Federal Reserve, they debate interest rate strategies while contrasting the labor markets in the US and abroad.