Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: Cloudy with signs of sun

Jul 19, 2024

Economist Bruce Kasman and professional Joseph Lupton discuss moderating global expansion with strong underlying support. They highlight US retail sales and manufacturing reports, caution on immaculate disinflation, and address disappointing China spending data as a domestic issue. Topics include consumer spending trends, global economic dependence, manufacturing dynamics, inflation analysis, and concerns over China's GDP growth and domestic demand.

22:48

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Episode guests

Joseph Lupton

Bruce Kasman

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Quick takeaways

Global industry is uplifted by solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports.

Concerns arise over slowing growth in Eurozone and China affecting global economic recovery.

Deep dives

Assessing Consumer Spending Trends and Income Growth

Consumer spending data shows mixed trends, with developed markets improving while emerging markets like China face challenges. Despite soft retail sales in the second quarter, momentum is picking up, supported by strong job and wage growth. Real incomes are rising impressively, backed by substantial wealth gains. While sentiment remains low, recent US retail sales indicate a willingness to spend more.

Observing Stable Import Prices from China

00:43

Intro

5min

Analysis of US retail sales impact and global economic trends

2min

Analyzing Manufacturing, Demand, Inventories, and Inflation Dynamics

3min

Global Economy Trends and Inflation Analysis

7min

China's GDP Growth Forecasts and Domestic Demand Concerns

6min

The global expansion is moderating but we maintain conviction that the underlying supports are strong. Solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports reinforce the lift underway in global industry. At the same time, we are more cautious on the building enthusiasm for the immaculate disinflation. Disappointing China spending data temper the outlook but are largely a domestic affair.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2024.

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Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: Cloudy with signs of sun

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Assessing Consumer Spending Trends and Income Growth

Global Economy's Dependence on US Engine and Manufacturing Growth

Inflation Dynamics and Policy Implications

Observing Stable Import Prices from China

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts