Global Data Pod Weekender: Cloudy with signs of sun
Jul 19, 2024
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Economist Bruce Kasman and professional Joseph Lupton discuss moderating global expansion with strong underlying support. They highlight US retail sales and manufacturing reports, caution on immaculate disinflation, and address disappointing China spending data as a domestic issue. Topics include consumer spending trends, global economic dependence, manufacturing dynamics, inflation analysis, and concerns over China's GDP growth and domestic demand.
Global industry is uplifted by solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports.
Concerns arise over slowing growth in Eurozone and China affecting global economic recovery.
Deep dives
Assessing Consumer Spending Trends and Income Growth
Consumer spending data shows mixed trends, with developed markets improving while emerging markets like China face challenges. Despite soft retail sales in the second quarter, momentum is picking up, supported by strong job and wage growth. Real incomes are rising impressively, backed by substantial wealth gains. While sentiment remains low, recent US retail sales indicate a willingness to spend more.
Global Economy's Dependence on US Engine and Manufacturing Growth
The global economy is experiencing varying growth rates, with the US contributing less while other regions strengthen. Manufacturing output is rising, but the balance between final demand and inventories is crucial. The focus shifts to upcoming PMI data to assess manufacturing numbers and potential shifts in services. Concerns about slower growth in the Eurozone and China emphasize the overall uncertainty in the global economic recovery.
Inflation Dynamics and Policy Implications
An anticipated slowdown in core inflation in the second half of the year is expected to be driven by lower service price inflation, while goods prices face upward pressure. Wage inflation is seen as essential for maintaining balanced income growth. Central banks, including the Fed and Bank of Canada, are closely monitoring these inflation trends for potential policy adjustments. Challenges remain in aligning wage and price inflation forecasts, raising uncertainty about future inflation patterns.
The global expansion is moderating but we maintain conviction that the underlying supports are strong. Solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports reinforce the lift underway in global industry. At the same time, we are more cautious on the building enthusiasm for the immaculate disinflation. Disappointing China spending data temper the outlook but are largely a domestic affair.