Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?
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Sep 12, 2025 Dive into the dynamic global economy as experts discuss the resilience of expansion and the puzzling health of the labor market. Discover how unexpected strength in the capital goods sector contrasts with declining job growth. Concerns over inflation's impact on consumer confidence are paramount, alongside the effects of tariffs on spending. The conversation veers into the intricate relationship between economic performance and unemployment, with forecasts hinting at global growth challenges ahead. Get ready for insightful analysis and predictions!
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Resilience Versus Policy Shocks
- The hosts argue recent US policy shocks are large but the global economy shows resilience aided by strong household and business balance sheets.
- That resilience creates a 'bending but not breaking' outlook where inflation may stay sticky, limiting central bank easing.
Conflicting Signals From Growth And Jobs
- Growth indicators (especially capital goods) surprised on the upside, complicating the view that shocks will dent expansion severely.
- Meanwhile labor market slowing creates conflicting signals about underlying economic health and the size of shocks.
Markets Price Soft Jobs As A Feature
- Markets treat soft job growth as a structural feature that supports Fed insurance easing rather than a precursor to recession.
- That view implies easing could extend the expansion rather than signal a looming downturn.