

Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery
22 snips Sep 19, 2025
Explore the intriguing dynamics of global growth as speakers dissect labor market risks and the Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts. The conversation highlights the paradox of weak job growth amidst strong GDP and profits. Listeners will be captivated by insights into how Fed cuts might influence emerging markets and the potential fallout from China's slowdown. Don't miss the thoughtful prediction on upcoming economic indicators as the hosts tie everything together in a compelling wrap-up.
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Fed Cut Was Insurance Against Labor Risk
- The Fed cut rates as insurance against a fragile labor market despite still-firm inflation and resilient GDP and CapEx.
- Powell signaled more cuts may follow even if this isn't the start of a large easing cycle.
Growth Surprise From CapEx And Consumers
- Recent PMIs and retail data surprised on the upside, complicating the trade-drag narrative.
- Strong CapEx and resilient consumer indicators explain much of the unexpected growth momentum.
Watch Labor Momentum, Adjust Policy Accordingly
- Monitor labor-market momentum closely when assessing policy and recession risk.
- Treat weak payroll momentum as a key vulnerability that justifies precautionary policy easing.