You Are Not So Smart

002 - The Illusion of Knowledge

May 8, 2012
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ANECDOTE

Pseudoscience Uses Techno-babble

  • Power balance bracelets use elaborate pseudoscientific language to sound effective.
  • Technical-sounding descriptions create an illusion of scientific credibility to sell products.
INSIGHT

Weather Forecasting Is Well Calibrated

  • Weather forecasters are well calibrated in their predictions, unlike many other forecasters.
  • Their estimates reflect the true probabilities, even if people dislike uncertainty expressed as percentages.
INSIGHT

Confidence Trumps Accuracy

  • People prefer confident experts even if their knowledge is false or uncertain.
  • Confidence influences attention more than accuracy in advice and predictions.
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