We tend to prefer people who are confident even if they're falsely confident. The stock pickers we pay attention to are the ones who express the most confidence or sort of pretend that they have the most knowledge and don't admit to any uncertainty. But on the other hand, the weather forecaster says 50% chance of rain should be paid attention to because that's actually a historically accurate forecast. It would be nice if they can get up to 100% and 0% being their only forecast but until we're there we shouldn't be pretending to know more than we do.