Weather Forecasters Have Less Delusions About Their Knowledge

The funny thing about weather forecasters is that they're one of the only groups of people who have really analyzed the data, historically well enough to be precisely calibrated in their predictions. By precisely calibrated it mean that on the days when they say there's a 50% chance of rain, it really does rain about 50% of those days. The 100% and the zero percent forecast actually are that, you know, in some ways the most dangerous ones.