The funny thing about weather forecasters is that they're one of the only groups of people who have really analyzed the data, historically well enough to be precisely calibrated in their predictions. By precisely calibrated it mean that on the days when they say there's a 50% chance of rain, it really does rain about 50% of those days. The 100% and the zero percent forecast actually are that, you know, in some ways the most dangerous ones.
In this episode of the You Are Not So Smart Podcast we discuss the illusion of knowledge with Christopher Chabris, co-author of "The Invisible Gorilla." After that, we eat a triple-ginger molasses cookie while discussing non-believed false memories.
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