Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
The Future of Forecasting
01:58 • 4min
The Propensity for Being Good at Forecasting
05:49 • 2min
The Commonality of Numbers Nerds
07:38 • 4min
The Importance of Identifying a Base Rate
11:18 • 2min
How to Make a Better Forecast
12:56 • 2min
The Future of VR
14:47 • 2min
The Base Rate Rule of 10
17:17 • 2min
The Importance of Inductive Reasoning in the Development of Expertise
19:46 • 2min
The Blind Spots and the Cognitive Bias
22:09 • 3min
How to Overcome Cognitive Biases in Forecasting
25:14 • 3min
The Importance of Identifying Cognitive Bias
27:55 • 2min
The Importance of Perspective in the 2016 Election
30:08 • 2min
How to Counter Cognitive Bias
32:33 • 2min
How to Circumvent Biases in the Accuracy Space
34:37 • 3min
How to Be a Better Forecaster
37:14 • 2min
How to Be a Better Forecaster
39:43 • 2min
The Importance of Nuance in Human Intelligence
41:53 • 3min
The Cassandra Syndrome
45:11 • 1min
How to Be a Better Forecaster
46:30 • 3min
The Future of Forecasting
49:54 • 2min