The Base Rate Rule of 10

Robert Petho: It has to be able to formulate a question in a way that it's still going to matter a year from now two years from now three years from now. So, so if somebody says, yeah, VR is going to be a big hit this Christmas. I mean, Robert, you just post something which could be molded into a tenable question. By Christmas of 2021, will Facebook sell 10 million VR headsets? That's a great, that's a great question to pause it. Now, the becomes what's your forecast. And this is where you need to start to integrate the idea of the base rate."