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Super Forecasting
The Futurists
How to Overcome Cognitive Biases in Forecasting
Overconfidence is one of the most common problems that people who wish to make forecasts need to overcome. Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winning psychologist and researcher into cognitive bias, identified these heuristics. Another one we talked about a moment ago was confirmation bias, where we make a decision about what's going to happen then search for information that supports our opinion rather than disprove it.
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