The Propensity for Being Good at Forecasting

I think there was a certain amount of skepticism, both in the public sector and the private sector as to whether or not some experts are very good at prediction. But it turns out that actually people are often surprised by the lack of direct correlation in certain cases between that type of expert credentialing and the accuracy of their predictions. Some of us actually do this for a living I was already working at a think tank doing exactly this was building out a futures division for a think tank to make geopolitical prediction.