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2min chapter
Super Forecasting
The Futurists
How to Make a Better Forecast
The base rate is everything. How you find it, how you presented to the end user, how you can adjust away from it. So all of those are absolutely critical factors in sharpening the accuracy of a forecast or prediction. And also, which is what we've seen in our work, especially in terms of the work that I do in establishing a systemic process. We're likely to make an inaccurate forecast based on just kind of a randomly assembled data.
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