4min chapter

The Futurists cover image

Super Forecasting

The Futurists

CHAPTER

The Commonality of Numbers Nerds

Many of the people who were involved in the experiment and who became identified as super forecasters were not working in the world of making predictions. But what was interesting was, you know, the commonality behind the traits that we share. So things like most of us are kind of numbers nerds. And we're very well on the types of psychometric assessments like number series Berlin numeracy. How good are you at being able to assign numeric probabilities about things rather than using words? That also speaks to a long standing concern within the intelligence community about the quality of making a prediction.

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