

#3911
Mentioned in 7 episodes
Radical Uncertainty
Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Book • 2020
In 'Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers,' Mervyn King and John Kay discuss the concept of radical uncertainty, which involves events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting to be possible.
The authors argue that many critical decisions cannot rely on forecasts or probability distributions and instead advocate for strategies that are robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events.
They critique the overreliance on statistical models and rational choice theories, emphasizing the importance of narratives, abductive reasoning, and understanding the context of decision-making.
The book covers various fields including economics, finance, policy studies, and more, using real-life examples to illustrate the folly of predictive models and the need for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty.
The authors argue that many critical decisions cannot rely on forecasts or probability distributions and instead advocate for strategies that are robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events.
They critique the overreliance on statistical models and rational choice theories, emphasizing the importance of narratives, abductive reasoning, and understanding the context of decision-making.
The book covers various fields including economics, finance, policy studies, and more, using real-life examples to illustrate the folly of predictive models and the need for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty.
Mentioned by












Mentioned in 7 episodes
Mentioned by 

as a book she is currently reading to understand different types of uncertainty for better control.


Judy Marks

80 snips
Otis CEO: Moving Billions Daily, Elevator Evolution, and Service Excellence
Mentioned by Paul Collier as a book he co-authored that emphasizes the importance of learning rapidly.

30 snips
Can AI teach us critical thinking?
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a book arguing for more cautious use of probabilistic forecasts.

Tom Chivers

16 snips
Episode 66: Superforecasting
Von 

empfohlen, da es sich mit der Finanzwelt auseinandersetzt.


Gerd Gigerenzer

12 snips
#80 Wie trifft man gute Entscheidungen in Unsicherheit, Prof. Gigerenzer?
Erwähnt von 

im Zusammenhang mit der Vorhersagbarkeit von Entwicklungen in komplexen Systemen.


Alexander Schatten

107 — How to Organise Complex Societies? A Conversation with Johan Norberg
Von 

und 

erwähnt im Kontext von radikaler Unsicherheit und Finanzkrisen.


Alexander Schatten


Gerd Gigerenzer

122 — Komplexitätsillusion oder Heuristik, ein Gespräch mit Gerd Gigerenzer
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

when discussing decision-making in the face of irreducible uncertainty.

Marco Valente

157. Marco Valente - Epistemic humility, loops of learning, theories of change, navigating complexity, risk, wicked problems and evidence based decision making
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as the subject of the podcast episode.

Jesse Norman

Radical Uncertainty, with Mervyn King, John Kay and Jesse Norman
Mentioned by 

as the book he read with some trepidation.


Russ Roberts

John Kay and Mervyn King on Radical Uncertainty
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a book that explores radical uncertainty in economics, citing its influence on his own work.

Amar Bhidé

509. Navigating Uncertainty and the Future of Economics feat. Amar Bhidé
Mentioned by 

as the title of his book on decision-making and data.


Russ Roberts

John Kay and Mervyn King on Radical Uncertainty