#3911
Mentioned in 7 episodes

Radical Uncertainty

Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Book • 2020
In 'Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers,' Mervyn King and John Kay discuss the concept of radical uncertainty, which involves events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting to be possible.

The authors argue that many critical decisions cannot rely on forecasts or probability distributions and instead advocate for strategies that are robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events.

They critique the overreliance on statistical models and rational choice theories, emphasizing the importance of narratives, abductive reasoning, and understanding the context of decision-making.

The book covers various fields including economics, finance, policy studies, and more, using real-life examples to illustrate the folly of predictive models and the need for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 7 episodes

Mentioned by
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Judy Marks
as a book she is currently reading to understand different types of uncertainty for better control.
80 snips
Otis CEO: Moving Billions Daily, Elevator Evolution, and Service Excellence
Mentioned by Paul Collier as a book he co-authored that emphasizes the importance of learning rapidly.
30 snips
Can AI teach us critical thinking?
Mentioned by
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Tom Chivers
as a book arguing for more cautious use of probabilistic forecasts.
16 snips
Episode 66: Superforecasting
Von
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Gerd Gigerenzer
empfohlen, da es sich mit der Finanzwelt auseinandersetzt.
12 snips
#80 Wie trifft man gute Entscheidungen in Unsicherheit, Prof. Gigerenzer?
Erwähnt von
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Alexander Schatten
im Zusammenhang mit der Vorhersagbarkeit von Entwicklungen in komplexen Systemen.
107 — How to Organise Complex Societies? A Conversation with Johan Norberg
Von
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Alexander Schatten
und
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Gerd Gigerenzer
erwähnt im Kontext von radikaler Unsicherheit und Finanzkrisen.
122 — Komplexitätsillusion oder Heuristik, ein Gespräch mit Gerd Gigerenzer
Mentioned by
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Jesse Norman
as the subject of the podcast episode.
Radical Uncertainty, with Mervyn King, John Kay and Jesse Norman
Mentioned by
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Russ Roberts
as the book he read with some trepidation.
John Kay and Mervyn King on Radical Uncertainty
Mentioned by
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Amar Bhidé
as a book that explores radical uncertainty in economics, citing its influence on his own work.
509. Navigating Uncertainty and the Future of Economics feat. Amar Bhidé
Mentioned by
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Russ Roberts
as the title of his book on decision-making and data.
John Kay and Mervyn King on Radical Uncertainty

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