Cixin Liu's 'The Three-Body Problem' is a critically acclaimed science fiction novel that blends hard science with compelling storytelling. The story follows a group of scientists who make contact with an alien civilization, leading to unforeseen consequences for humanity. Liu's intricate world-building and exploration of complex scientific and philosophical themes have earned him widespread recognition. The novel is known for its ambitious scope and its exploration of the potential challenges and dangers of encountering extraterrestrial life. It's a thought-provoking work that has captivated readers worldwide.
In 'Bauchentscheidungen' zeigt Gerd Gigerenzer, wie die unbewusste Intelligenz des Menschen oft zu besseren Entscheidungen führt als das rationale Abwägen. Er illustriert dies mit verschiedenen Beispielen, wie z.B. einer Ärztin, die langjährige Patienten intuitiv besser versteht, oder einem Mann, der sich in eine Frau verliebt, deren 'Partnerprofil' nicht zu ihm passt. Das Buch revolutioniert unser Bild vom menschlichen Verstand und betont die Bedeutung der Intuition in komplexen Situationen.
The book highlights the detrimental effects of noise in various fields such as medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Noise is defined as random or chaotic deviations from targeted behavior, which can lead to inconsistent judgments even among the same individuals under different conditions. The authors provide research-based insights and practical solutions to reduce both noise and bias, aiming to improve decision-making in multiple areas of life and work.
In 'Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers,' Mervyn King and John Kay discuss the concept of radical uncertainty, which involves events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting to be possible. The authors argue that many critical decisions cannot rely on forecasts or probability distributions and instead advocate for strategies that are robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. They critique the overreliance on statistical models and rational choice theories, emphasizing the importance of narratives, abductive reasoning, and understanding the context of decision-making. The book covers various fields including economics, finance, policy studies, and more, using real-life examples to illustrate the folly of predictive models and the need for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty[1][2][3].
In this revised and expanded edition of the groundbreaking New York Times bestseller, Dan Ariely uses a series of illuminating experiments to show how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible forces skew our reasoning abilities. Ariely explains how we consistently overpay, underestimate, and procrastinate, and how these behaviors are neither random nor senseless but systematic and predictable. The book covers various aspects of decision-making, from the power of placebos to the effects of social and financial norms, and offers insights into how to make better decisions by understanding these irrational patterns.
In 'Skin in the Game', Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that having personal stakes in the outcomes of decisions is crucial for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management. The book highlights how individuals and systems that are insulated from the consequences of their decisions often make poor choices. Taleb draws on historical and contemporary examples to illustrate the importance of symmetry in risk and reward, and how this principle affects various domains, including politics, economics, and personal life. The book emphasizes that true learning and improvement come from experiencing the consequences of one's actions, a concept encapsulated in the Greek idea of 'pathemata mathemata' or 'guide your learning through pain'.
In 'Nudge,' Thaler and Sunstein argue that by understanding how people think, we can design 'choice architectures' that nudge people toward better decisions for themselves, their families, and society. The book introduces the concept of 'libertarian paternalism,' where gentle nudges guide people toward beneficial choices without limiting their freedom. It explores various aspects of human decision-making, including the distinction between the 'Automatic System' and the 'Reflective System' of thinking, and provides numerous examples of how nudges can be applied in real-life scenarios to improve outcomes in health, finance, and other areas[1][3][5].
In dieser Episode ist Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer zu Gast. Er war langjähriger Direktor am Max Planck Institut für Bildungsforschung in Berlin und leitet heute das Harding-Zentrum für Risikoforschung an der Universität Potsdam. Gerd Gigerenzer ist Autor und hat u.a. das Buch “Risiko” geschrieben. Die Frage "Wie trifft man richtige Entscheidungen“ interessiert uns sehr, und genau diese haben Marco und Gerd eingehend diskutiert. Gemeinsam beleuchten sie, wann man besser auf seine eigene Intuition vertrauen sollte und unter welchen Rahmenbedingungen man davon ausgehen kann, dass künstliche Intelligenz und Big Data in der Lage sind gute und vielleicht sogar bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen.
Außerdem diskutieren die beiden, wie man sich die Fähigkeit zum kritischen Denken erhalten und vielleicht sogar fördern kann, und warum das in Zukunft wahrscheinlich extrem wichtig sein und bleiben wird.
Diese Folge findest du auch als Podcast auf:
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Links zu Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer:
https://www.hardingcenter.de/de
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3tCOQO80vU
“Risiko: Wie man die richtigen Entscheidungen trifft”: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/3570554422
“Bauchentscheidungen”: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/3442155037
“The Intelligence of Intuition”: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/1009304895
“Klick: Wie wir in einer digitalen Welt die Kontrolle behalten und die richtigen Entscheidungen treffen”: https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/3570554767
Links zur Folge:
John Kay und Mervyn King “Radical Uncertainty”: https://www.amazon.de/Radical-Uncertainty-Decision-Making-Beyond-Numbers/dp/1324004770
Cixin Liu “The Three-Body Problem”: https://www.amazon.de/Three-Body-Problem-Remembrance-Earths-Past/dp/0765377063
Lorraine Daston “Rules”: https://www.amazon.de/Rules-Short-History-Lawrence-Lectures/dp/0691254087
“Was ist die Aufklärung? Thesen und Definitionen”: https://www.amazon.de/Was-ist-Aufklärung-Thesen-Definitionen/dp/3150097142
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