Amar Bhidé, a Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University and author of "Uncertainty and Enterprise," dives into the fascinating nuances of uncertainty in economics. He critiques traditional economic models for overlooking the role of imagination and judgment in decision-making. The conversation also emphasizes the power of storytelling in teaching economics and how a narrative approach can enhance understanding. Bhidé challenges listeners to rethink organizational dynamics, advocating for collective engagement over hierarchical control.
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insights INSIGHT
Understanding Uncertainty
Uncertainty in economics is often overlooked, yet it plays a crucial role in human decision-making. Mainstream theories tend to reduce uncertainty to mere risk, missing complex human experiences.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Encourage Imagination in Decision-Making
Foster an environment where imagination is valued alongside evidence. This will enable better decision-making and innovation in organizations.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Role of the Board
A well-functioning board questions the assumptions and beliefs of the CEO. This process is vital for ensuring that imaginative ideas are plausible and grounded.
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In 'Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers,' Mervyn King and John Kay discuss the concept of radical uncertainty, which involves events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting to be possible. The authors argue that many critical decisions cannot rely on forecasts or probability distributions and instead advocate for strategies that are robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. They critique the overreliance on statistical models and rational choice theories, emphasizing the importance of narratives, abductive reasoning, and understanding the context of decision-making. The book covers various fields including economics, finance, policy studies, and more, using real-life examples to illustrate the folly of predictive models and the need for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty[1][2][3].
Competitive strategy
Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
Michael Porter
This book by Michael E. Porter provides a detailed analysis of the competitive landscape by introducing the Five Forces framework: threat of new entrants, intensity of rivalry among existing competitors, pressure from substitute products, bargaining power of buyers, and bargaining power of suppliers. Porter also presents three generic strategies—cost leadership, differentiation, and focus—which help companies position themselves competitively. The book has been highly influential in shaping the discipline of competitor assessment and has been widely adopted by managers, analysts, and scholars worldwide.
The Innovator's Dilemma
When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
Clayton M. Christensen
In this influential business book, Clayton Christensen shows how even the most outstanding companies can lose market leadership when they fail to adapt to disruptive innovations. Christensen explains why companies often miss new waves of innovation and provides a set of rules for capitalizing on disruptive technologies. The book uses examples from various industries, including the disk drive, mechanical excavator, steel, and computer industries, to illustrate trends that lead to success or failure in the face of disruptive technologies.
The Venturesome Economy How Innovation Sustains Prosperity In A More Connected World
Amar Bhide
A call for judgment
Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy
Amar Bhide
The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses
Amar Bhidé
Amar V. Bhide
Uncertainty and Enterprise
Uncertainty and Enterprise
Venturing Beyond the Known
Amar Bhidé
What is the difference between risk and uncertainty? Why does mainstream economics often overlook uncertainty altogether?
Amar Bhidé is a professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, professor emeritus at Tufts University, and the author of several books, his latest of which is entitled, Uncertainty and Enterprise: Venturing Beyond the Known.
Greg and Amar discuss Amar’s recent book, which ties together threads from his previous works such as A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy and The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World. They delve into the concept of uncertainty in economics, touch on the roles of imagination and evidence in decision-making, and discuss the limitations of current economic models and theories. Greg and Amar also examine the importance of storytelling and narrative in understanding and teaching economics and business.
11:40:A well-functioning board is questioning the assumptions, beliefs, and imaginations of the CEO and whatever the CEO has come up with. And these things, somebody cannot explain plausibly under standard economic models. Yet, they have clearly observable differences in what they produce. So the differences in these routines, I would argue, distinguish between the kinds of projects that an entrepreneur undertakes on his or her own. They distinguish between the kinds of projects that an angel investor is willing to undertake but a VC is not, and the kinds of projects that a VC is willing to undertake but the large corporation is not.
Using imagination as a bridge between the past and the future
24:12: If you want a bridge between what we know about the past and how we want to act vis-à-vis the future, we have to use imagination. And in the use of that imagination, the past provides the evidence; the imagination provides the bridge to what we do not know.
Balancing evidence and imagination in case discussions
57:06: A good case discussion is also teaching people how to discuss. But how to swap imaginations is not discourse in algebra; it is not discourse using statistics; it’s discourse using similes, metaphors, and analogies. How one balances evidence and imagination is such a vital skill in so many fields.
unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc 
