#2870
Mentioned in 14 episodes
The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't
Book • 2012
In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed.
He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles.
Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions.
The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.
He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles.
Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions.
The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.
Mentioned by
Mentioned in 14 episodes
Mentioned by 
Timothy Davis when discussing the importance of focusing on the signal and not the noise in data analysis.
Timothy Davis when discussing the importance of focusing on the signal and not the noise in data analysis.
270 snips
The ultimate guide to performance marketing | Timothy Davis (Shopify)
Mentioned by 
Drew when discussing the role of luck in life, using a question from Silver's book to frame the conversation.
Drew when discussing the role of luck in life, using a question from Silver's book to frame the conversation.
236 snips
How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks
Mentioned by the podcast hosts as a book providing insights into statistics and prediction.
20 snips
THE LIVESTREAM - Trump Dissolves The Department of Education?
Recommended by 
Julia Galef as a book on prediction methods using solid statistics and Bayesian inference.
Julia Galef as a book on prediction methods using solid statistics and Bayesian inference.
Rationally Speaking #76 - Crowdsourcing and the Wisdom of Crowds
Mentioned by 
Walt Hickey in relation to the reliability of weather forecasts and the tendency of local TV weathermen to inflate the probability of rain.
Walt Hickey in relation to the reliability of weather forecasts and the tendency of local TV weathermen to inflate the probability of rain.
What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)
Recommended by Brian Kernighan as a book about his career as a professional poker player and related industries.
Brian Kernighan Reflects on Unix: A History and a Memoir
Mentioned by 
Frank Vasquez when discussing the impact of communications technologies on the spread of ideas.
Frank Vasquez when discussing the impact of communications technologies on the spread of ideas.
Episode 418: Different Drummers, Even More GDE, Nice Blogging When You Can Get It, And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 25, 2025
Mentioned by 
Sarah Gretczko as a really good analogy for everything that's going on in the skill space.
Sarah Gretczko as a really good analogy for everything that's going on in the skill space.
“We Did the Skills Work. Nothing Happened.” | PayPal’s Sarah Gretczko on The Truth About Skills Strategy
Mentioned by Dr. John Izzo when discussing the 1980 election and its impact on American politics.
Being the Best Ancestors we can - with Dr John Izzo of the Elders Action Network
