

#1869
Mentioned in 14 episodes
The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't
Book • 2012
In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed.
He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles.
Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions.
The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.
He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles.
Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions.
The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.
Mentioned by






























Mentioned in 14 episodes
Mentioned by 

when discussing the importance of focusing on the signal and not the noise in data analysis.


Timothy Davis

271 snips
The ultimate guide to performance marketing | Timothy Davis (Shopify)
Mentioned by 

when discussing the role of luck in life, using a question from Silver's book to frame the conversation.


Drew

236 snips
How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks
Mentioned by 

in reference to 

's rise to fame in 2012.


Megyn Kelly


Nate Silver

102 snips
Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as one of 

's books.

Dax Shepard


Nate Silver

57 snips
Nate Silver (statistician)
Mentioned by 

as one of 

's books.


Scott Galloway


Nate Silver

49 snips
Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver
Mentioned by 

as a great book on predictions.


Ryan Holiday

42 snips
How High Risk-Takers Are Shaping Our World | Nate Silver
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

while discussing effective altruism and utilitarianism.

Dax Shepard

24 snips
Tyler Perry
Mentioned by the podcast hosts as a book providing insights into statistics and prediction.

20 snips
THE LIVESTREAM - Trump Dissolves The Department of Education?
Mentioned by 

as 

's best-selling book.


Steve Levitt


Nate Silver

13 snips
117. Nate Silver Says We're Bad at Making Predictions
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a book he liked, focusing on predictive models.

Phil Rosenzweig

#68 Phil Rosenzweig: The Halo Effect
Recommended by 

as a book on prediction methods using solid statistics and Bayesian inference.


Julia Galef

Rationally Speaking #76 - Crowdsourcing and the Wisdom of Crowds
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a book in the territory of behavioural finance.

Helen Williams

EP 39: Shelf Life #4 (with Ray Perman)
Mentioned by 

as the author of the bestselling book, "The Signal and the Noise."


Steve Levitt

116. Abraham Verghese Thinks Medicine Can Do Better
Mentioned by 

in relation to the reliability of weather forecasts and the tendency of local TV weathermen to inflate the probability of rain.


Walt Hickey

What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)
Recommended by ![undefined]()

as a book about his career as a professional poker player and related industries.

Brian Kernighan

Brian Kernighan Reflects on Unix: A History and a Memoir
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

when talking about her investment strategy of consistently putting money in the market.

Stephanie Ramos

Quitting Amazon: Stephanie Ramos’ Inspiring Story on Designing a Life You Love, Ep 151
Mentioned by ![undefined]()

as a relatively interesting read about how to work with data and interpret data.

Tom Batchelor

Training load monitoring in rugby union and managing player workloads in-season with Tom Batchelor (Lead Sports Scientist and Conditioning Coach at Harlequins Rugby)
Mentioned by 

as an example to illustrate the concept of signal versus noise.


Phillip Millar

The Fear of Posting Is Costing You More Than You Realize
Mentioned by 

as the title of a book about signal and noise.


James Fisher

499 - The Best HIT Protocol for Strength, Muscle Mass, & Hypertrophy (SuperSlow VS High-Volume HIT Debate with Dagoberto Vila and Dr. James Fisher)
Mentioned by 

when discussing the impact of communications technologies on the spread of ideas.


Frank Vasquez

Episode 418: Different Drummers, Even More GDE, Nice Blogging When You Can Get It, And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 25, 2025