#1869
Mentioned in 14 episodes

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't
Book • 2012
In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed.

He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles.

Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions.

The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 14 episodes

Mentioned by
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Timothy Davis
when discussing the importance of focusing on the signal and not the noise in data analysis.
271 snips
The ultimate guide to performance marketing | Timothy Davis (Shopify)
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Drew
when discussing the role of luck in life, using a question from Silver's book to frame the conversation.
236 snips
How to Get Lucky in Life and Take Smarter Risks
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Dax Shepard
as one of
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Nate Silver
's books.
57 snips
Nate Silver (statistician)
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Scott Galloway
as one of
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Nate Silver
's books.
49 snips
Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver
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Ryan Holiday
as a great book on predictions.
42 snips
How High Risk-Takers Are Shaping Our World | Nate Silver
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Dax Shepard
while discussing effective altruism and utilitarianism.
24 snips
Tyler Perry
Mentioned by the podcast hosts as a book providing insights into statistics and prediction.
20 snips
THE LIVESTREAM - Trump Dissolves The Department of Education?
Mentioned by
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Steve Levitt
as
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Nate Silver
's best-selling book.
13 snips
117. Nate Silver Says We're Bad at Making Predictions
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Phil Rosenzweig
as a book he liked, focusing on predictive models.
#68 Phil Rosenzweig: The Halo Effect
Recommended by
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Julia Galef
as a book on prediction methods using solid statistics and Bayesian inference.
Rationally Speaking #76 - Crowdsourcing and the Wisdom of Crowds
Mentioned by
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Helen Williams
as a book in the territory of behavioural finance.
EP 39: Shelf Life #4 (with Ray Perman)
Mentioned by
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Steve Levitt
as the author of the bestselling book, "The Signal and the Noise."
116. Abraham Verghese Thinks Medicine Can Do Better
Mentioned by
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Walt Hickey
in relation to the reliability of weather forecasts and the tendency of local TV weathermen to inflate the probability of rain.
What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)
Recommended by
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Brian Kernighan
as a book about his career as a professional poker player and related industries.
Brian Kernighan Reflects on Unix: A History and a Memoir
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Stephanie Ramos
when talking about her investment strategy of consistently putting money in the market.
Quitting Amazon: Stephanie Ramos’ Inspiring Story on Designing a Life You Love, Ep 151
Mentioned by
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Tom Batchelor
as a relatively interesting read about how to work with data and interpret data.
Training load monitoring in rugby union and managing player workloads in-season with Tom Batchelor (Lead Sports Scientist and Conditioning Coach at Harlequins Rugby)
Mentioned by
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Phillip Millar
as an example to illustrate the concept of signal versus noise.
The Fear of Posting Is Costing You More Than You Realize
Mentioned by
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Frank Vasquez
when discussing the impact of communications technologies on the spread of ideas.
Episode 418: Different Drummers, Even More GDE, Nice Blogging When You Can Get It, And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 25, 2025

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