Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, shares insights from his fascinating career in political and sports forecasting. He recalls his ambitious youth, aspiring to become president and later a baseball commissioner. The conversation delves into how code-switching has aided his success as a gay man, his foray into online poker, and the importance of statistical literacy. Nate discusses the adrenaline rush of winning streaks, comparing it to a narcotic, and critiques the risky behaviors of figures like Sam Bankman-Fried, shedding light on decision-making in high-stakes environments.
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Presidential Aspirations
Nate Silver's fifth-grade biography detailed his future presidency.
He would later retire to become baseball commissioner, his true passion.
insights INSIGHT
Outsider Advantage
Feeling like an outsider can be valuable. This allows individuals to develop code-switching abilities and diverse perspectives.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Transfer Pricing Consultant
Nate Silver worked as a transfer pricing consultant, optimizing tax policies for multinational companies.
He found the work unfulfilling despite the initial excitement of earning a paycheck.
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In this searing own-voices story, Allison Sweet Grant portrays a young woman's journey to confront the medical trauma inflicted to 'fix' her and heal her heart. The story follows nineteen-year-old Elisabeth, who is hiding from her memories in a tiny cabin in Fish Creek, Wisconsin. When a massive snowstorm forces her to accept help from her neighbor, Noah, the town's young sheriff, Elisabeth must face her childhood scars and the darkness that has haunted her. The book is an emotional coming-of-age story about running away from oneself and finding a way back, deeply moving, authentically raw, and humming with the possibility of new love.
The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't
Nate Silver
In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed. He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles. Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions. The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.
On the Edge
The Art of Risking Everything
Nate Silver
In 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything', Nate Silver explores the world of 'the River', a community of risk-takers including poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto enthusiasts, and venture capitalists. Silver delves into the mindset and strategies of these individuals, who navigate uncertainty and complexity with a high tolerance for risk and an affinity for numbers. The book takes readers behind the scenes of casinos, venture capital firms, and the inner workings of the effective altruism movement, highlighting the impact of these risk-takers on technology and the global economy. Silver also critiques the flaws in the thinking of these 'Riverians' and discusses the broader implications of risk-taking in modern society[3][4][5].
Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don’t have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.
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Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard 
