Rationally Speaking #76 - Crowdsourcing and the Wisdom of Crowds

In 'Longitude', Dava Sobel narrates the epic scientific quest to determine longitude at sea, a problem that had plagued navigators for centuries. The story centers around John Harrison, a self-educated clockmaker from Yorkshire, who devoted forty years to developing a series of precise chronometers that could accurately measure time even on long and rough sea voyages. By comparing the chronometer's time to local sun time, navigators could precisely measure longitude, a breakthrough that significantly improved maritime navigation and saved countless lives. The book also delves into the historical context, including the establishment of the Board of Longitude and the scientific and political rivalries of the time, making it a compelling tale of human ambition, science, and innovation.

In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed. He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles. Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions. The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.

In "The Drunkard's Walk," Leonard Mlodinow uses the random walk as a metaphor to explore the role of chance in our lives. He demonstrates how seemingly random events can have significant consequences, and how our understanding of randomness is often flawed. Mlodinow delves into various fields, from the stock market to scientific discoveries, showing how chance influences outcomes. He challenges our intuitive understanding of cause and effect, highlighting the importance of probability and statistics in making sense of the world. The book is a fascinating exploration of randomness and its impact on our lives, written in a clear and engaging style.