Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver

In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed. He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles. Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions. The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.

In 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything', Nate Silver explores the world of 'the River', a community of risk-takers including poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto enthusiasts, and venture capitalists. Silver delves into the mindset and strategies of these individuals, who navigate uncertainty and complexity with a high tolerance for risk and an affinity for numbers. The book takes readers behind the scenes of casinos, venture capital firms, and the inner workings of the effective altruism movement, highlighting the impact of these risk-takers on technology and the global economy. Silver also critiques the flaws in the thinking of these 'Riverians' and discusses the broader implications of risk-taking in modern society[3][4][5].

In this ground-breaking book, Katy Milkman reveals a proven path to help readers move from where they are to where they want to be. Drawing on her original research and the work of her world-renowned scientific collaborators, Milkman shares strategic methods for identifying and overcoming common barriers to change, such as impulsivity, procrastination, and forgetfulness. The book offers innovative approaches like 'temptation bundling,' using timely reminders, and creating 'set-it-and-forget-it systems' to make change more achievable. It emphasizes the importance of tailoring solutions to specific roadblocks and using science to stack the deck in favor of successful change.