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How High Risk-Takers Are Shaping Our World | Nate Silver

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Sep 11, 2024

Guest

Nate Silver

Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, delves into the world of risk-taking and its influence on society. He discusses how high-stakes poker strategies mirror entrepreneurial risks, highlighting the psychological dynamics involved. The conversation also touches on media ethics, the challenges of audience capture, and the complex interplay between truth and profitability. Furthermore, Nate explores the intricacies of effective altruism and how risk shapes political agendas. Tune in for insights on navigating risk in an ever-evolving landscape!

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ADVICE

Entrepreneurial Advantage on Substack

Understand the value of your time and what moves the needle.
Leverage platforms like Substack to control your content and connect with your audience directly.

insights

INSIGHT

Shifting Economics of Journalism

Traditional journalism often has a ceiling on income, while independent media can offer significantly more.
This shift in economics can introduce new incentives and challenges, especially regarding audience capture.

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ANECDOTE

Balancing Page Views and Subscribers

Nate Silver wrote a critical post about Joe Biden, which generated page views but fewer subscribers.
This highlights the tension between creating popular content and maintaining an independent, subscriber-focused approach.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Embracing Risk and Strategy in Media

04:16 • 21min

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The Intoxicating Stakes of Poker and Entrepreneurship

25:00 • 5min

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Navigating Risk and Storytelling

29:50 • 14min

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High Stakes: Money, Politics, and Predictions

43:24 • 8min

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The Complexities of Effective Altruism and Movement Dynamics

51:26 • 5min

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Navigating Growth and Quality in Business

56:02 • 17min

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Embracing Differences and Finding Balance

01:13:21 • 7min

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Engagement and Survival Stories in Podcasting

01:20:42 • 2min

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Painting as a pastime

Winston Churchill

Winston Churchill's "Painting as a Pastime" is a reflection on the joys and benefits of painting as a hobby. Written during a period of intense political pressure, the book reveals Churchill's personal approach to art and its therapeutic value. He emphasizes the importance of finding creative outlets for stress relief and self-expression. The book offers insights into Churchill's artistic process and his philosophy on life. It serves as a testament to the power of creative pursuits in maintaining mental and emotional well-being.

The fall

Albert Camus

In 'The Fall', Albert Camus explores themes of guilt, judgment, and the human condition through the narrative of Jean-Baptiste Clamence. Clamence, a self-proclaimed 'judge-penitent', recounts his life as a successful but hypocritical lawyer in Paris. His story is marked by a pivotal event where he failed to act when a woman jumped to her death from a bridge, leading to a deep sense of guilt and existential despair. Through his monologues, Clamence delves into the complexities of human nature, the inevitability of judgment, and the universal guilt that underlies human existence. The novel is set against the backdrop of Amsterdam and reflects on the broader implications of World War II and the Holocaust, inviting readers to confront their own moral failings and the inherent hypocrisy in human behavior.

Conspiracy

Ryan Holiday

In 'Conspiracy', Ryan Holiday chronicles the intricate and ambitious plot by Peter Thiel to take down Gawker Media. The book is based on interviews with key players and delves into the strategic and philosophical underpinnings of Thiel's actions. It examines the intersection of power, privacy, and free speech in the digital age, highlighting the ruthless and brilliant tactics employed by Thiel. The narrative transcends a simple tale of a billionaire vs. a media empire, offering insights into the broader implications for culture and society.

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't

Nate Silver

In this book, Nate Silver delves into the world of prediction, examining why many predictions fail and how some succeed. He uses case studies from diverse areas like baseball, elections, climate change, financial crashes, poker, and weather forecasting to illustrate statistical principles. Silver emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking, humility, and acknowledging uncertainty in making predictions. The book is praised for its accessible explanation of complex statistical concepts and its wide-ranging coverage of predictive methods.

Stillness is the Key

Ryan Holiday

In 'Stillness is the Key', Ryan Holiday explores the concept of inner stillness as a universal principle across different philosophical and religious traditions, including Stoicism, Buddhism, Epicureanism, and more. The book is divided into three sections: stillness of the mind, stillness of the spirit, and stillness of the body. Holiday argues that cultivating stillness allows for better decision-making, increased focus, and a more fulfilling life. He uses anecdotes from historical figures and contemporary examples to illustrate the importance of moderation, patience, and self-awareness in achieving this state of stillness.

On the Edge

The Art of Risking Everything

Nate Silver

In 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything', Nate Silver explores the world of 'the River', a community of risk-takers including poker players, hedge fund managers, crypto enthusiasts, and venture capitalists. Silver delves into the mindset and strategies of these individuals, who navigate uncertainty and complexity with a high tolerance for risk and an affinity for numbers. The book takes readers behind the scenes of casinos, venture capital firms, and the inner workings of the effective altruism movement, highlighting the impact of these risk-takers on technology and the global economy. Silver also critiques the flaws in the thinking of these 'Riverians' and discusses the broader implications of risk-taking in modern society.

Nate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate’s latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society.

Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with Ryan about incentives in large media corporations with independent media, ethical challenges of audience capture, financial motives in journalism, conflicts between truth-seeking and profitability, the dynamics of tech versus traditional media, effective altruism, and much more.

Nate is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and The Noise.

📚 Grab a signed copy of On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver| https://www.thepaintedporch.com/

Subscribe to Nate Silver’s Substack: Silver Bulletin

Connect with Nate Silver on X: @NateSilver538

🎟 Ryan Holiday is going on tour! Grab tickets for London, Rotterdam, Dublin, Vancouver, and Toronto at ryanholiday.net/tour

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