The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Aug 13, 2024

Nate Silver, a political forecasting expert and author of 'On the Edge,' dives into his transition from corporate media to independent insights, sharing his unique journey from poker to politics. He discusses the impact of current polling and gives insights on the 2024 election, highlighting Kamala Harris and the unpredictability of Trump. Joining him, Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz address Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump and analyze Trump's communication challenges, emphasizing the need for targeted messaging to sway swing voters.

01:39:00

Creator website

Episode guests

Nate Silver

Karol Markowicz

Bethany Mandel

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Nate Silver emphasizes the importance of reliable data and key battleground states for predicting the outcome of the 2024 election.

The shift towards independent media allows for greater control and expression of complex views, highlighting challenges faced by traditional news organizations.

Silver draws parallels between gambling strategies and election forecasting, advocating for embracing uncertainty and strategic risk-taking in decision-making.

The increasing role of social media in shaping electoral outcomes necessitates vigilant engagement from candidates to counter misinformation and effectively reach voters.

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Nate Silver, known for his accurate election forecasts, discusses the current political landscape ahead of the 2024 election. He highlights that the focus should be on key battleground states while emphasizing the significance of reliable data amidst changing political dynamics. Silver notes the importance of taking risks, drawing parallels between gambling strategies and election forecasting. His insights reflect the necessity of maintaining objectivity despite partisan pressures, encouraging analysts to separate personal biases from statistical evaluations.

Embrace Evolution Amidst Division

01:36

Polling Patterns: A Game of Margins

01:30

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

01:14

Accountability in Academic Protests

01:41

Intro

2min

From Poker to Politics: A Journey of Risk and Analysis

2min

From Corporate Constraints to Independent Insights

15min

Media Narratives and Political Fitness

11min

High-Stakes Decisions: Business and Politics

12min

Exploring the Mindset of Risk-Takers and Competitors

2min

Poker: Strategy, Psychology, and Game Theory

5min

Republican Strategies and Legislative Concerns Amidst Current Events

3min

Free Speech and Media Dynamics

9min

10.

Navigating Trump's Communication Challenges

14min

11.

Protests and Politics: A Deep Dive

15min

12.

Public Figures and Backlash: The Case of Hollywood Criticism

3min

13.

Hollywood's Political Discourse

6min

Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.

Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/

Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondark

Markowicz- https://x.com/karol

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The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Independence and Career Transition

Risk-Taking in Politics and Life

Current Political Polling Dynamics

Shifts in Media Coverage and Reporting

Electoral Strategies and Public Perception

The Role of Social Media in Elections

Embrace Evolution Amidst Division

Polling Patterns: A Game of Margins

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

Accountability in Academic Protests

Get the Snipd
podcast app

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

Save any
moment

Share
& Export

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Independence and Career Transition

Risk-Taking in Politics and Life

Current Political Polling Dynamics

Shifts in Media Coverage and Reporting

Electoral Strategies and Public Perception

The Role of Social Media in Elections

Embrace Evolution Amidst Division

Polling Patterns: A Game of Margins

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

Accountability in Academic Protests

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Discoverhighlights

Save anymoment

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