Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

102 snips

Aug 13, 2024

Guest

Nate Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin and election forecasting expert, joins the discussion on political predictions for 2024. He shares insights on the evolving landscape and why Trump might still be a strong contender. Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, co-authors of "Stolen Youth," dive into the challenges of free speech and media scrutiny surrounding prominent figures like Elon Musk and Trump. They recommend strategies for Trump to resonate with swing voters, emphasizing the need for clarity and policy focus in his messaging.

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ANECDOTE

From Poker to Politics

Nate Silver's career began unconventionally.
He transitioned from a boring consulting job to professional poker playing before becoming a political prognosticator.

INSIGHT

Independence Over Corporate

Nate Silver's departure from ABC was due to their lack of a business strategy for FiveThirtyEight.
He now thrives in independent media, enjoying the freedom and control it offers.

INSIGHT

Forecasting Challenges

FiveThirtyEight's suspension of its forecast might be due to distrust in their model, which overestimated Biden's chances.
This highlights the challenge of maintaining objectivity in political forecasting.

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Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.

Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/

Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondark

Markowicz- https://x.com/karol

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