The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Aug 13, 2024

Nate Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin and election forecasting expert, joins the discussion on political predictions for 2024. He shares insights on the evolving landscape and why Trump might still be a strong contender. Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, co-authors of "Stolen Youth," dive into the challenges of free speech and media scrutiny surrounding prominent figures like Elon Musk and Trump. They recommend strategies for Trump to resonate with swing voters, emphasizing the need for clarity and policy focus in his messaging.

01:39:00

Creator website

Episode guests

Karol Markowicz

Bethany Mandel

Nate Silver

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Nate Silver emphasizes the importance of reliable data and key battleground states for predicting the outcome of the 2024 election.

The shift towards independent media allows for greater control and expression of complex views, highlighting challenges faced by traditional news organizations.

Silver draws parallels between gambling strategies and election forecasting, advocating for embracing uncertainty and strategic risk-taking in decision-making.

The increasing role of social media in shaping electoral outcomes necessitates vigilant engagement from candidates to counter misinformation and effectively reach voters.

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Nate Silver, known for his accurate election forecasts, discusses the current political landscape ahead of the 2024 election. He highlights that the focus should be on key battleground states while emphasizing the significance of reliable data amidst changing political dynamics. Silver notes the importance of taking risks, drawing parallels between gambling strategies and election forecasting. His insights reflect the necessity of maintaining objectivity despite partisan pressures, encouraging analysts to separate personal biases from statistical evaluations.

Conflict Fuels Relevance

01:04

Polls Shift Perceptions: Caution within the GOP

00:54

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

01:14

Performative Activism Reveals True Intentions

00:59

Intro

2min

From Poker Tables to Political Forecasting

2min

From Network to Independence: The Journey of Political Forecasting

15min

Media Scrutiny and Political Leadership

11min

Navigating Risks and Political Landscapes

12min

The High-Stakes Mindset: Understanding Risk and Reward

2min

The Psychology of Poker Strategy

5min

Navigating Party Dynamics and Legislative Impacts

3min

Free Speech and Its Controversies

9min

10.

Trump's Communication Challenges Ahead of 2024

14min

11.

Student Protests and Political Ramifications

15min

12.

Hollywood Tensions and Personal Narratives: The Vance-Close Controversy

3min

13.

Hollywood's Toxic Dynamics

6min

Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.

Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/

Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondark

Markowicz- https://x.com/karol

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The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Independence and Career Transition

Risk-Taking in Politics and Life

Current Political Polling Dynamics

Shifts in Media Coverage and Reporting

Electoral Strategies and Public Perception

The Role of Social Media in Elections

Conflict Fuels Relevance

Polls Shift Perceptions: Caution within the GOP

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

Performative Activism Reveals True Intentions

Get the Snipd
podcast app

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

Save any
moment

Share
& Export

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Discover
highlights

The Megyn Kelly Show

Elon Musk Goes All In On Trump, and Predicting the 2024 Election, with Nate Silver, Bethany Mandel, and Karol Markowicz | Ep. 860

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Nate Silver's Political Predictions

Independence and Career Transition

Risk-Taking in Politics and Life

Current Political Polling Dynamics

Shifts in Media Coverage and Reporting

Electoral Strategies and Public Perception

The Role of Social Media in Elections

Conflict Fuels Relevance

Polls Shift Perceptions: Caution within the GOP

Market Models Must Reflect Reality

Performative Activism Reveals True Intentions

Get the Snipdpodcast app

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Discoverhighlights

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