At Any Rate

The podcast dives into the surprising decline of Brent oil prices, driven by investor anxiety and recession fears. It highlights the challenges facing U.S. shale producers as break-even costs come under pressure, influencing drilling budgets and production levels. Projections reveal a significant cut in crude production by 2026, impacting market stability. OPEC+ strategies to retain market share amidst these fluctuations are explored, raising questions about future pricing dynamics and interventions.

Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the changing dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market. He discusses the anticipated gas-to-coal switching trends in summer 2025 and the potential price impacts due to weather risks. Dgebuadze also highlights expected production increases in 2026 that may stabilize prices. Additionally, he touches on how recession risks might influence future demand and supply in this fluctuating energy landscape.

Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers insights into the recent turbulence in currency markets. He discusses the rise of the Eurodollar to a three-year high and its implications for the U.S. dollar's strength. The conversation shifts to complexities in U.S.-China trade relations and the evolving perceptions of U.S. assets. Arindam also navigates the dollar's performance against emerging markets and explores its long-term status as a safe haven amidst ongoing economic volatility.

Jay Barry is the Head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan, while Srini Ramaswamy leads their Global Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy. They delve into the recent historic volatility in US rates markets, spurred by tariff impacts and liquidity concerns. The duo discusses the surprising stability in cash/futures basis despite declining overall market liquidity. They unravel complexities in swap spreads and analyze the unexpected drop in core CPI, exploring how these trends could influence future economic risks and Federal Reserve actions.

Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Asia Economist at JP Morgan, shares his expertise on the evolving economic landscape in emerging markets post-Liberation Day. He discusses the implications of recent U.S. tariffs on Asian growth and explores how policymakers are responding with various tools. The conversation highlights challenges in U.S.-China relations and their impact on trade dynamics. Additionally, Chinoy delves into currency exchange rates and the intricacies of Asian financial markets, emphasizing key risk factors to watch.

In this engaging discussion, fluctuations in global commodity markets take center stage, highlighting how tariff changes impact gold and crude oil prices. The conversation pivots to concerns over a potential U.S. recession, delving into its implications for agricultural markets. Key crops like corn, wheat, and sugar are examined, revealing how economic factors shape trade flows. The insights provide a clear view of the interconnectedness of global trade and the agriculture sector.

Recent tariff announcements have shaken up G10 and Emerging Market currencies, leading to notable market reactions like equity sell-offs. As recession fears grow, the U.S. dollar's attractiveness shifts amidst declining real yields. The podcast highlights safe haven currencies like the yen and franc, while emerging markets face mounting challenges. Discussions also include how trade ties influence economic stress in Asia, revealing potential vulnerabilities. Future negotiations may alter the trade landscape, impacting various currencies further.

This discussion delves into the unexpected impacts of recent US tariff announcements on the European rates market. Fluctuations in German yields signal rising recession risks, complicating economic forecasts. The widening of Boondester spreads is examined, highlighting fiscal policies and market sentiment. Additionally, the podcast explores how tariff influences shape intra-EMU spreads and inflation dynamics, reflecting the divergence between European and US inflation trends amidst global uncertainty.

The latest trends in U.S. financial markets unfold as experts navigate the complexities of data and Federal Reserve policies. They dive into how inflation forecasts and tariff uncertainties reshape market dynamics, especially in swap markets. The wide-ranging effects of upcoming regulatory changes on swap spreads and treasury demand are scrutinized. Additionally, factors influencing front-end swap spreads come into play, shedding light on upcoming financial milestones and the resilience of the banking system.

Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies in the wake of the auto-sector tariffs and ahead of the big April 2nd tariff announcement by the US administration.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.