At Any Rate

James Nelligan, a senior FX strategist, Anezka Christovova, an emerging-markets expert, and Patrick Locke, a macro strategist, dive into the shifting landscape of global currencies for 2026. They explore the bearish outlook on the dollar, opportunities in high-yield currencies like those in emerging markets, and the impact of commodity prices on different regions. Discussion highlights include Sweden's robust growth, Canada’s bearish outlook due to job softness, and the tactical plays for sterling and the euro in a procyclical environment.

Aditya Chordia, a Euro area issuance specialist, shares insights on the record €1.46 trillion gross issuance forecast for 2026, driven by German increases. He discusses the implications for German yields, suggesting they’ll remain range-bound. Khagendra Gupta, a rates analyst, illuminates the seasonal uptick in corporate issuance and its effects on swap spreads, while highlighting the impact of Dutch pension transitions on the swap curve. They also touch on the Bank of England's easing outlook amid a hawkish tone.

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research, brings insights on Venezuela's gold and nickel potential, emphasizing the impact of investment on their massive untapped reserves. Otar Dgebuadze, a Natural Gas researcher, analyzes Venezuelan gas reserves and their importance for LNG exports to Trinidad and Colombia. The discussion extends to how U.S. engagement could reshape oil sector dynamics, especially concerning production gains, while addressing the challenges posed by infrastructure in the mining and aluminum sectors.

Patrick Locke, a Global FX Strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan, dives into U.S. data impacts on FX and interest rates, revealing insights on payrolls and CPI. Junya Tanase, specializing in Japan Markets Research, discusses the recent BOJ policy changes and their effects on the yen. Octavia Popescu shares valuable takeaways from European central banks, noting the nuances of BOE and Nordisk Bank decisions. The conversation touches on dollar dynamics, regional currency drivers, and future projections that will keep you on the edge of your seat.

Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy, dive into crucial topics surrounding U.S. economic dynamics. They discuss the impact of delayed economic data on market sentiment and explain the intricacies of the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases. Phoebe clarifies how these purchases affect Treasury issuance, while Ipek touches on the implications for swap spreads and funding markets. Their insights shed light on potential liquidity shifts in 2026!

Inesha Kristerova, Head of EMEA EM and Latam Local Market Strategy at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on emerging market (EM) local markets and the ongoing debates around EMFX positioning. Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dives into valuation concerns with EM sovereign spreads and highlights a preference for high yield over investment grade credits. They also discuss political volatility in countries like Brazil and Hungary, and specific opportunities and risks in regions such as Argentina and Nigeria.

Octavia Popescu, a London-based Global FX strategist specializing in European currencies, and Ladislav Jankovic, an expert in FX volatility and options markets, dive into the recent global rates move and its effects on the dollar. They discuss the implications of the Fed's dovish stance and the surprising dynamics of Canada's payrolls. Octavia explains Sweden's and Switzerland's currency movements, while Ladislav sheds light on event-risk pricing and hedging strategies as they brace for significant upcoming US data and central bank meetings.

Natasha Kaneva, J.P. Morgan's Head of Global Commodities Research, dives into the future of oil markets. She explains why crude prices plummeted in 2025 due to oversupply and predicts a supply growth outpacing demand through 2027. With insights on global shale developments like Argentina's Vaca Muerta, she outlines significant inventory builds and price forecasts, including Brent at $58 in 2026. Natasha emphasizes that a market rebalancing will hinge more on supply adjustments than demand increases.

Joined by Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research, and Otar Dgebuadze, a Natural Gas analyst, the discussion dives into the intriguing dynamics of global commodities. Shearer predicts gold may soar to $5,000 by 2026, driven by surging demand, and shares bullish insights on copper, projecting prices around $12,500. Dgebuadze offers a bearish outlook for U.S. natural gas, with prices averaging $3.74/MMBtu due to oversupply. Both experts unveil a ‘crocodile cycle’ that marks a departure from traditional commodity trends.

Join Arindam Sandilya, an expert in Asian FX flows, as he unpacks regional policy preferences and the seasonal strength of CNY. Antonin Delair, an FX macro-quant strategist, discusses the impact of quieter central bank activity on market signals and factor performance. Patrick Locke tackles US trade policies, tariffs, and their implications for the FX landscape, particularly in relation to Canada. Expect insights on the interplay between currencies and global economic dynamics.