At Any Rate Global FX: A highly procyclical start
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Jan 9, 2026 James Nelligan, a senior FX strategist, Anezka Christovova, an emerging-markets expert, and Patrick Locke, a macro strategist, dive into the shifting landscape of global currencies for 2026. They explore the bearish outlook on the dollar, opportunities in high-yield currencies like those in emerging markets, and the impact of commodity prices on different regions. Discussion highlights include Sweden's robust growth, Canada’s bearish outlook due to job softness, and the tactical plays for sterling and the euro in a procyclical environment.
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Procyclical Environment Favors Carry
- A broadly pro-cyclical global environment favors a weaker dollar and stronger carry strategies.
- Less active central banks and solid global growth reduce volatility and support high-yield FX exposure.
Commodity Shifts Reshape FX Terms Of Trade
- Commodity price moves are shifting terms-of-trade across currencies, hurting oil exporters and helping metal exporters.
- Copper and gold rallies disproportionately benefit metal-exporting currencies and change FX relative value dynamics.
Fund Cyclicals With Low-Debt DM Currencies
- Consider funding higher-beta cyclical plays with less-indebted DM currencies like Scandi or Swiss.
- Fiscal differentiation in DM makes Swiss and Scandi attractive funding options versus dollar and yen.