At Any Rate

In this insightful discussion, Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins Khagendra Gupta to delve into the intricate world of US and Eurex futures. They explore the drivers behind U.S. futures roll and share perspectives on the December 2025 to March 2026 bond rollover. Ipek sheds light on funding rates, emphasizing the impact of missing CFTC data and the importance of optionality in bond futures. Their conversation reveals the complex interplay between market dynamics and positioning analysis, making it a must-listen for finance enthusiasts.

Meera Chandan, an FX strategist specializing in European dynamics, and James Nelligan, a London-based FX strategist, dive into the intricacies of the global currency market. They explore the bullish outlook for EUR/USD driven by German fiscal changes and European growth, while also questioning if US resilience may limit its potential. They discuss the intricacies of sterling ahead of the UK budget and assess the challenges facing Scandi currencies. Additionally, they touch on the difficulties faced by Asian currencies like the yen and KRW amid current market trends.

Otar Dgebuadze, an expert on global LNG supply and author of the Global LNG Analyzer 2035, and Nina Fahy, head of U.S. Natural Gas Research, dive deep into the dynamics of LNG markets. They discuss how rising supply contrasts with declining demand in established markets like China and Europe due to renewable energy shifts. The conversation highlights the urgent need for enhanced infrastructure in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, to absorb this excess supply while emphasizing the critical flexibility needed from the U.S. natural gas sector.

Gisela Brant, a LatAm rates strategist, and Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dive into the impact of upcoming elections on the region's fixed income markets. Gisela discusses the current vulnerability of local rates, emphasizing improved macro fundamentals and attractive valuations. She also evaluates specific risks in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. Meanwhile, Ben highlights how the outcomes of Ecuador's referendum and elections in Colombia and Brazil could shape sovereign credit spreads and fiscal credibility.

Tracey Allen dives into the agricultural market outlook for 2026/27, expressing a bearish view for US soybeans while remaining optimistic about grains and cotton. She highlights cocoa's expected inclusion in the BCOM index and rising sugar prices due to supply challenges. Recent US-China trade developments indicate potential tariff changes that may impact agricultural exports. Additionally, the soybean market faces pressure from Brazilian competition. Overall, volatility is predicted amid shifting weather patterns and evolving global policies.

Dive into the latest insights as the Riksbank and Norges Bank keep rates steady, with expectations reflecting a cautious stability. Explore the Riksbank's belief in temporary inflation pressures and its hold policy. Discover Norges Bank's implicit easing bias that might delay any cuts. The Bank of England’s split vote reveals internal tensions, while market pricing hints at potential rate cuts next year. Plus, a look at upcoming budget changes suggests income tax rises are on the horizon. Get ready for a whirlwind of European financial dynamics!

Currency dynamics take center stage as experts delve into the factors powering recent dollar strength, including mixed US economic data and tech influences. The volatility of EUR/USD is scrutinized, highlighting its strong growth potential. In the UK, budget speculation stirs fears for sterling, while a tactical shift in sentiment is suggested. Meanwhile, Canada's budget presentation reveals insights into the CAD's outlook amidst market reactions. Tune in for a thrilling exploration of global currency trends!

Join Ben Ramsey, Head of EM sovereign credit strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EM and LATAM local market strategy, as they dive into the dynamic world of emerging market fixed income. They explore how equity–FX correlations signal shifts in global markets and discuss the persistence of low volatility in EM rates. Ben highlights the record issuance in EM sovereigns, while Anezka explains the influences behind recent EMFX movements amidst tech stock fluctuations. Their insights illuminate the nuanced drivers shaping today’s investment landscape.

Dive into the intriguing world of central banks as Ipek and Khagendra dissect recent developments that are shaking up derivatives markets. They unpack the latest FOMC rate cut and the surprising debates surrounding future easing. Powell's press conference sends ripples through market pricing, leaving listeners curious about upcoming rate movements. Additionally, the hosts explore the European Central Bank's strategy and examine the outlook for other key players like the BOE and Riksbank. It's a whirlwind tour of monetary policy impacts!

Join Patrick Locke, a Senior Macro FX Strategist at JPMorgan, and Junya Tanase, Head of Japan FX Research, as they unpack recent developments in global currencies. They analyze the hawkish Fed's surprising remarks and their implications for the dollar. Junya sheds light on the unexpected dovish stance of the Bank of Japan and the potential risks for the yen. They also discuss the revised USD/JPY forecast and the influence of recent political events in Asia on FX markets. It's a fascinating dive into the ever-changing world of foreign exchange!