At Any Rate

In this discussion, Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins fellow experts to dissect emerging market repayment risks. They highlight 18 sovereigns at risk, examining familiar trouble spots like Argentina, with its election-related uncertainties and Bolivia facing liquidity issues. The conversation shifts to Asian and African nations, including Sri Lanka's recovery post-restructuring and the repayment concerns in the Maldives. While many countries show resilience, the team emphasizes the need for caution and vigilance among investors.

The hosts delve into how the U.S. government shutdown could influence the dollar's value. They discuss the impending Japan LDP election and its potential market impact, especially on the yen. Historical ties between U.S. political strife and alternative reserve assets like gold and bitcoin are explored. Insights into CAD as a strategic dollar proxy highlight Canadian economic challenges. Finally, the latest FX reserve manager flows reveal shifting trends in currency allocations, with minimal de-risking from dollars.

Join Khagendra and Ipek as they delve into the intriguing world of cross-currency bases. They discuss how DM bases are interconnected and the current expectations for Fed cuts this year. The conversation reveals Ipek's cautious outlook, predicting fewer cuts due to inflation concerns. They also touch on the Fed's balance sheet dynamics, seasonal issuance trends, and year-end funding risks. Plus, learn about the potential impact of short USD positions on the basis. It's a lively discussion packed with insights for market enthusiasts!

Agri trade is back on the U.S. agenda as President Trump plans to address China's soybean purchases. However, time may not be on the side of U.S. farmers, with potential market recovery unlikely until later. Current strong exports of corn and wheat highlight competitive pricing, while risks loom with a potential government shutdown affecting USDA data. The assessment shows global agricultural stocks at multi-year lows, with notable upside price risks. Plus, the ENSO transition to La Nina could impact crop yields in key regions, raising further concerns.

Anezka Christovova, a leading expert in EM FX and local rates, and Ben Ramsey, head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dive into the dynamic world of emerging markets. They discuss how stronger global growth is reshaping the EM landscape and the potential vulnerabilities for EM currencies amid a delayed Fed strategy. Anezka highlights the impact of commodity prices on exporters like South Africa and Chile, while Ben addresses how US market trends could affect EM sovereign spreads and the ongoing uncertainty in Argentina’s credit situation.

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins Ipek Ozil to discuss pivotal changes in money market rates. They delve into the transition from EFFR to TGCR, highlighting TGCR's advantages as a more comprehensive benchmark. The duo analyzes recent funding volatility, particularly around corporate tax day, and explores the implications for quantitative tightening and reserve management. Their insights on repo dynamics and market behaviors provide a fascinating look at the future of U.S. rates.

Discussion revolves around the fluctuating confidence in the dollar and the impacts of systematic signals amid recent US and German data. They delve into how carry strategies post-COVID have shown resilience and the struggles of momentum trades due to low dispersion in various markets. The potential effects of a US government shutdown on payroll data are highlighted, including risks to dollar strength. Additionally, the speakers analyze EUR/USD upside risks tied to geopolitical tensions and AI-driven capital expenditure trends.

A substantial supply disruption at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has caused a stir in the copper market, leading to a bullish forecast. The loss is estimated at approximately 200,000 tons in late 2025 and 270,000 tons into 2026, flipping the market balance from surplus to deficit. With tight fundamentals and increasing Chinese demand, copper prices are projected to reach around $11,250 per metric ton. The potential for investor inflows and macroeconomic trends further support this optimistic outlook.

Khagendra Gupta, a Rates strategist at J.P. Morgan specializing in Nordic markets, joins Francis Diamond to dive into the latest central bank decisions impacting Scandinavia. They dissect the Riksbank's recent 25bp cut and its implications for core inflation and Swedish yields. Khagendra also sheds light on an unexpected Norges Bank cut and its forecast shift. The duo wraps up discussing the potential ripple effects of UK political dynamics on rates, highlighting that current Labour leadership speculation is unlikely to cause immediate market reactions.

Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EDGE at J.P. Morgan, shares insights from the Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference. Katherine Marney, a senior economist, discusses improving fundamentals in frontier economies, including falling inflation and fiscal reforms. Gbolahan Taiwo provides a vibrant perspective on African sovereigns, highlighting Uganda's fiscal improvements and Angola's reforms. They also explore investor interest in Nigeria, Zambia, and Ukraine, while touching on key political dynamics in Latin America.