The podcast dives into Germany's shifting fiscal policy and its potential effects on the euro-dollar exchange rate. Discussions predict an appreciation of the euro amid improving conditions and a ceasefire. Scandinavian currencies are highlighted as attractive hedges, while the Japanese yen and Australian dollar's recovery potential is evaluated. The intricacies of currency valuations under global inflation and the impact of tariffs on U.S. trade are explored, revealing the complex dynamics shaping foreign exchange markets.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra provide an update in the equity financing markets and discuss how that is driving growth in the ABCP market.   Speakers Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 7, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4902017-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926314-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After attending IE Week in London last week, we concluded that the majority of investors likely held long positions in oil and that the pain trade would be to the downside. Since then, Brent oil prices have plunged 6.5%, reaching their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday, while WTI have fallen nearly 6% over the same period, hitting its lowest point since May 2023. Brent is currently trading about $7 below its fair value, with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, an event we do not anticipate, however further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices. To recap our view, we expect the price of Brent oil to average $73 this year—largely unchanged from our 2024 Outlook published in November 2023—exiting the year at $64, before slipping to a $61 average in 2026.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925607-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Explore the fascinating tug-of-war between US economic signals and tariff impacts on inflation and the dollar. The hosts discuss how moderating US rates and shifting business sentiment challenge the Federal Reserve's outlook. Delve into market yields and labor dynamics as they shape expectations for future rate cuts. Additionally, examine tariff implications on the Eurozone following Germany's elections, highlighting potential fiscal reforms and their effects on the EUR/USD exchange rate. It's a riveting look at global financial interplay!

The discussion dives into the dynamics of the copper market, highlighting limited supply growth amidst resilient global demand. Current slack in China's economy poses risks for near-term price pulls, but a tightening forecast looms for 2025 and 2026. The potential for inventory buildups in the U.S. adds complexity, hinting at a world short on copper. The hosts project prices could reach $10,400/mt as demand pressures intensify, setting the stage for exciting developments in the commodity landscape.

Explore the intriguing dynamics of global inflation as experts analyze recent CPI data and the narrowing of break-even rates. Gain insights into how shifts in market sentiment and tariff uncertainties influence economic resilience. Discover the contrasting inflation trends in Europe, particularly in the UK and Euro area, alongside predictions shaped by energy prices. Finally, dive into a comparative look at breakeven inflation rates between Australia and the US, shedding light on differing economic policies and investor implications.

Dive into the intriguing effects of recent U.S. policy changes on emerging market fixed income. Discover how emerging market currencies are holding strong even as U.S. equities dip. The dialogue also addresses the complexities of evolving tariff strategies and their muted market responses. Geopolitical influences, especially from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reveal a mixed bag for Central Asian markets. Finally, explore how investors are navigating the tension between fundamentals and valuations in countries like Turkey and Venezuela.

Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin delve into the nuances of Eurex futures, particularly the March and June bond contracts. They break down the pivotal role of the cheapest to deliver bonds in pricing and explore the impact of funding rates on futures rolls. As they analyze market dynamics, they discuss macro influences and short positions affecting yield spreads. The conversation also covers trading strategies for the 10-year BTP and the significant open interest in OIT futures as roll dates approach.

Gisela Brant, a LatAm Local Markets Strategy Analyst at J.P. Morgan, and Alejandra Andrade, a LatAm Corporate Credit Strategy Analyst at J.P. Morgan, share insights on Argentina's economic landscape. They discuss recent reforms, the impact of fiscal policies, and the path towards recovery post-recession. The evolving fixed income market is examined, along with the dynamics of capital controls and potential shifts in the exchange rate regime. They also highlight the rally in corporate bonds, driven by high yields and strong credit fundamentals, uncovering new investment opportunities.

In this discussion, Greg Fuzesi, J.P. Morgan's Eurozone head economist and an expert on German politics, dives into the recent German elections. He highlights the implications of coalition stability for economic sentiment. The dilemmas surrounding Germany's debt restrictions come to light, alongside its critical role in EU fiscal rules. Fuzesi balances optimism and caution about the euro's future, acknowledging the complexities of global economic trends and the dollar's dynamics. A fascinating insight into navigating fiscal challenges!