At Any Rate

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy at J.P. Morgan, dives into the evolving world of stablecoins alongside Pankaj Vohra. They discuss how the Genius Act and Clarity Act are shaping the stablecoin market and its implications for Treasury demand. The duo highlights the contrast between stablecoins and traditional money market funds, the challenges of regulatory clarity, and the promising future of tokenized money market funds, emphasizing their role in enhancing liquidity and transparency.

Renowned economist Greg Fuzesi shares his insights on the recent ECB meeting and its implications for the Eurozone. He discusses how US-EU tariff negotiations are shaping the economic landscape, outlining potential effects on currency markets and inflation. The conversation dives into the expected impacts of ECB policies on money market rates and bond yields, showcasing a balanced outlook on the euro's strength. Fuzesi elaborates on navigating market signals amidst upcoming economic events, emphasizing the resilience of the European economy.

Oil price volatility is set to spike in September due to a mix of geopolitical events. President Trump's deadline regarding Russia intersects with new European sanctions, creating market uncertainty. Meanwhile, tensions in Iran and Israel could influence Middle Eastern oil demand. The anticipated dip in summer demand coincides with significant refinery maintenance, setting the stage for unpredictable market shifts. These factors combine to create a delicate balance of bullish and bearish forces in the global oil landscape.

Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Strategy at JPMorgan, dives into the latest shifts in Emerging Market fixed income. He discusses the cautious outlook on EM currencies due to trade tensions and economic forecasts. Ramsey sheds light on the tight sovereign spreads at multi-year lows and their implications for investor sentiment. There’s also a compelling analysis of swap spreads, which have turned significantly negative, illuminating the intricacies of the Treasury market. This insightful conversation is a must-listen for anyone interested in emerging markets.

Phoebe White, Senior U.S. Rates Strategist at J.P. Morgan, and Eric Childs, Head of NA Rates Trading, dive into crucial insights about the upcoming Treasury refunding announcement. They discuss expected changes in T-bill issuance and the fiscal implications on investor behavior. The duo analyzes market adjustments and the influence of global trends on term premiums, especially how long-end yields remain elevated. Expect a deep dive into the implications of central bank responses and anticipated funding challenges for the next few years.

Join Patrick Locke, a J.P. Morgan analyst focused on FX outlook, and James Nelligan, who specializes in UK data, as they dive into the impact of Japan's recent elections on fiscal policies and the yen. Hear their insights on U.S. monetary policy volatility and its ripple effects on the dollar. They also tackle the UK's economic challenges and the bearish outlook for the sterling amid stagflation fears. The discussion rounds out with trends in global FX reserves, signaling potential shifts in currency dynamics.

Jahangir Aziz is the Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research at J.P. Morgan, while Jonny Goulden leads their EM Fixed Income Strategy. They delve into the impact of U.S. tariffs on emerging markets, particularly comparing ASEAN nations with China. The conversation highlights the challenges in monetary policy shaped by inflation, along with the risks posed by credit spreads. They also discuss the interconnectedness of EM currencies with global trends, including the potential for recovery amid a fluctuating dollar. A must-listen for those interested in EM strategies!

Cocoa prices are experiencing a significant downturn due to decreased demand, particularly in Asia. The podcast uncovers the implications of disappointing grind data on agricultural markets and how tariffs on Brazilian imports are affecting the situation. Experts analyze price fluctuations, forecast potential supply and demand improvements, and discuss the influence of weather and inventory levels on future market dynamics. Despite the current challenges, a stabilization in cocoa prices might be on the horizon.

In this engaging discussion, the hosts delve into summer themes shaping the European rate markets. They explore historical trends in intra-EMU spreads, revealing implications for carry trades. The conversation shifts to the seasonal dynamics of swap spreads, highlighting widening trends linked to reduced issuance. Finally, they analyze European SSA exposures, especially in Germany, and dissect recent volatility in UK gilt yields due to fiscal pressures, providing insights into future yield projections.

Join Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of FX Strategy at JPMorgan, and Patrick Locke, Senior FX Strategist, as they dissect the bearish forecast for the US dollar. They delve into recent CNY fixes and tariffs, analyzing how these factors influence market expectations and the dollar's future. The conversation highlights the resilience of the Eurodollar and dynamic currency shifts across Asia, revealing how U.S. trade policy changes could impact global markets. Tune in for insights into the strategic currents shaping international finance!