At Any Rate

Ben Jarman, a Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategist at J.P. Morgan, offers valuable insights on the dollar's current performance and the impact of unexpected central bank decisions on growth and inflation. He discusses New Zealand's dovish monetary policy and its effects on the Kiwi dollar. The conversation dives into dollar inflows into U.S. assets, highlighting their significance against a backdrop of declining dollar strength. Additionally, Jarman analyzes capital flows and economic indicators in the UK, revealing investor sentiment in response to fiscal changes.

Francis Diamond and Frida Infante dive into the evolving landscape of inflation in the Eurozone and UK. They discuss a notable decline in core inflation trends and predict future inflation expectations. The conversation highlights the harmonized index of consumer prices and recent developments affecting the UK’s inflation outlook. Additionally, they analyze UK inflation break-evens, emphasizing their potential value amid uncertainties. Finally, a transatlantic perspective contrasts US and European inflation dynamics, urging attention to fixed income trends.

Morten Lund, an expert on Scandinavian economics from J.P. Morgan, joins James Nelligan, an FX researcher, to delve into the macroeconomic landscape of Sweden and Norway. They discuss how ongoing trade wars could dampen growth in Sweden while forecasting a bright future for Norway's economy, fueled by strong consumer confidence. Expect insights on the monetary policies of Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank, as well as the impact of central bank strategies on currency fluctuations, particularly the NOK and SEK.

James Nelligan, a Senior FX strategist at JPMorgan, and Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA and Latam Local Markets Strategy, dive into the future of the US dollar and the factors behind its potential decline. They discuss key geopolitical events affecting currency markets and analyze the implications of a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conversation also covers the dynamics of GBP amid UK economic challenges and the effects of Scandi central bank policies. With insights on emerging markets, it’s a deep exploration of currency strategy amidst global uncertainty.

Discussing the upcoming rollover of US and Eurex bond futures, the conversation navigates macroeconomic trends and Federal Reserve easing expectations. Challenges in analyzing Eurex futures due to limited data are explored, focusing on asset managers' strategies to reduce delivery risks. Key factors affecting funding rates and calendar spreads are also analyzed, revealing their influence on bond yield movements and market positioning. Tune in for intriguing insights on the dynamic landscape of futures trading!

Antonin Delair, who leads systematic FX strategy out of London, shares valuable insights into the recent developments surrounding the dollar and emerging market currencies. The discussion highlights the Bank of England's surprising focus on inflation control and the potential repercussions for the sterling. Additionally, Delair delves into the cyclical factors influencing the dollar's performance and contrasts the growth trajectories of emerging versus developed markets, shedding light on the opportunities and challenges in the current global financial landscape.

Francis Diamond, an analyst from JP Morgan, delves into the recent Bank of England meeting, illuminating their unexpected hawkish tone amid a 25 basis point rate cut. He also explores the influence of quantitative tightening on UK gilt yields alongside the evolving landscape of Scandinavian rate markets. Discussion highlights include Sweden's GDP growth and the potential for rate cuts, with insights into navigating economic indicators. Market reactions to these shifts, especially concerning the Norwegian economy, add to the lively discourse.

Anezka Christovova, a key member of JPMorgan's Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategy team, shares her insights on the current dynamics in emerging markets. She discusses the impacts of recent U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on market risks. Christovova highlights the importance of understanding local conditions while navigating investment strategies in emerging market currencies. Additionally, she examines trends in credit spreads and the implications of Federal Reserve cuts for local bonds.

Allan Monks, Chief UK Economist, joins FX strategist James Nelligan to explore the upcoming Bank of England policy meeting. They discuss the precarious state of the UK economy, highlighting weak growth and job market indicators. Monks shares insights on the potential dovish stance of the BoE, along with the challenges of managing market expectations amidst lingering inflation. The duo also investigates the bearish outlook for the British pound against European currencies due to ongoing economic uncertainties.

Join Meera Chandan and Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy at JPMorgan, as they dive into key financial topics impacting FX and rates. Jay shares insights on the resilient dollar and how recent employment data is reshaping Fed policy. They discuss the implications of the Treasury's refunding process, market volatility, and the shift in investment strategies due to evolving interest rates. Additionally, they explore potential opportunities in European currencies amid changing economic trends.