At Any Rate Global FX: EUR/USD contemplation, GBP fiscal and JPY woes
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Nov 14, 2025 Meera Chandan, an FX strategist specializing in European dynamics, and James Nelligan, a London-based FX strategist, dive into the intricacies of the global currency market. They explore the bullish outlook for EUR/USD driven by German fiscal changes and European growth, while also questioning if US resilience may limit its potential. They discuss the intricacies of sterling ahead of the UK budget and assess the challenges facing Scandi currencies. Additionally, they touch on the difficulties faced by Asian currencies like the yen and KRW amid current market trends.
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European Growth Still Driving EUR Upside
- Europe’s growth story remains intact and is outperforming expectations with rising forecasts and stronger credit creation.
- That growth thesis still supports a bullish EUR/USD bias even if U.S. catchdown contributions have weakened.
EUR Strength When Both Regions Improve
- Euro strength historically occurs when both European and U.S. growth outlooks are being marked up.
- That pattern suggests euro gains can happen in a pro-cyclically rising global growth environment.
Play Europe Via Cyclical Crosses
- The European cyclical theme may play out more through crosses like the Scandis rather than EUR/USD itself.
- Top-down and bottom-up factors in Scandinavia (fiscal impulse, easing cycles, exports) support that view.