At Any Rate European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup
Nov 7, 2025
Dive into the latest insights as the Riksbank and Norges Bank keep rates steady, with expectations reflecting a cautious stability. Explore the Riksbank's belief in temporary inflation pressures and its hold policy. Discover Norges Bank's implicit easing bias that might delay any cuts. The Bank of England’s split vote reveals internal tensions, while market pricing hints at potential rate cuts next year. Plus, a look at upcoming budget changes suggests income tax rises are on the horizon. Get ready for a whirlwind of European financial dynamics!
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Scandi Central Banks Staying Put
- The Riksbank and Norges Bank held rates as expected, reflecting stable data and limited market repricing.
- Sweden likely stays on hold while Norway faces an easing bias that data would need to dislodge.
Temporary Inflation vs. Sticky Pressures
- Riksbank expects temporary high inflation to reverse when VAT cuts phase back in next year.
- Norges Bank's forecasts embed about 25bp of easing per year, but data and a weak currency keep inflation sticky near 3%.
Split BOE Vote And Bailey As Swing Voter
- The BOE vote split 5-4 with four members preferring a 25bp cut, showing more dovish sentiment than expected.
- Governor Bailey emerges as the swing voter with a data-dependent, slightly dovish tilt in his commentary.