At Any Rate

Ladislav Jankovic, a Global FX strategist at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the subdued FX volatility outlook for 2026, driven by resilient US growth. Juan Duran-Vara discusses the benefits of option-based carry trades and the expected stability in dollar correlations. Sanjana Shinde dives into event-driven volatility, analyzing key elections and defensive hedging strategies to protect portfolios. The trio explores compelling themes like European growth and cross-asset plays, making for a captivating and informative discussion.

Join Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research, and Jonny Goulden, Head of E&F Fixed Income Strategy, as they dive into the optimistic 2026 outlook for emerging markets. Jahangir breaks down factors like AI investment, tariff uncertainties, and regional growth forecasts, while Jonny shares insights on the potential for EM currencies and high-yield local bonds. With discussions on inflation trends, monetary policy shifts, and key market themes, they reveal why this might be a pivotal year for emerging markets.

In this insightful discussion, Phoebe White shares her expertise on U.S. inflation and forecasts a path for Treasury yields, while Ipek Ozil delves into U.S. swap spreads and introduces compelling option strategies for the coming year. Khagendra Gupta presents his take on the volatility of German swap spreads, and Aditya Chordia analyzes the outlook for German yields and intra-EMU spreads against a backdrop of evolving political risks. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of global rates as we head towards 2026.

Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, dives into 2026's thrilling metals outlook. He forecasts gold soaring to $5,000/oz, driven by central bank buying and ETF inflows. The discussion also highlights copper’s impending tightness, with prices set to rise towards $12,500/mt due to supply disruptions. Shearer reviews silver and platinum trends, while cautioning about risks affecting gold, including rate sensitivity and demand fluctuations. A wealth of insights for investors and enthusiasts exploring the metal markets!

In this insightful discussion, Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins Khagendra Gupta to delve into the intricate world of US and Eurex futures. They explore the drivers behind U.S. futures roll and share perspectives on the December 2025 to March 2026 bond rollover. Ipek sheds light on funding rates, emphasizing the impact of missing CFTC data and the importance of optionality in bond futures. Their conversation reveals the complex interplay between market dynamics and positioning analysis, making it a must-listen for finance enthusiasts.

Meera Chandan, an FX strategist specializing in European dynamics, and James Nelligan, a London-based FX strategist, dive into the intricacies of the global currency market. They explore the bullish outlook for EUR/USD driven by German fiscal changes and European growth, while also questioning if US resilience may limit its potential. They discuss the intricacies of sterling ahead of the UK budget and assess the challenges facing Scandi currencies. Additionally, they touch on the difficulties faced by Asian currencies like the yen and KRW amid current market trends.

Otar Dgebuadze, an expert on global LNG supply and author of the Global LNG Analyzer 2035, and Nina Fahy, head of U.S. Natural Gas Research, dive deep into the dynamics of LNG markets. They discuss how rising supply contrasts with declining demand in established markets like China and Europe due to renewable energy shifts. The conversation highlights the urgent need for enhanced infrastructure in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, to absorb this excess supply while emphasizing the critical flexibility needed from the U.S. natural gas sector.

Gisela Brant, a LatAm rates strategist, and Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dive into the impact of upcoming elections on the region's fixed income markets. Gisela discusses the current vulnerability of local rates, emphasizing improved macro fundamentals and attractive valuations. She also evaluates specific risks in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. Meanwhile, Ben highlights how the outcomes of Ecuador's referendum and elections in Colombia and Brazil could shape sovereign credit spreads and fiscal credibility.

Tracey Allen dives into the agricultural market outlook for 2026/27, expressing a bearish view for US soybeans while remaining optimistic about grains and cotton. She highlights cocoa's expected inclusion in the BCOM index and rising sugar prices due to supply challenges. Recent US-China trade developments indicate potential tariff changes that may impact agricultural exports. Additionally, the soybean market faces pressure from Brazilian competition. Overall, volatility is predicted amid shifting weather patterns and evolving global policies.

Dive into the latest insights as the Riksbank and Norges Bank keep rates steady, with expectations reflecting a cautious stability. Explore the Riksbank's belief in temporary inflation pressures and its hold policy. Discover Norges Bank's implicit easing bias that might delay any cuts. The Bank of England’s split vote reveals internal tensions, while market pricing hints at potential rate cuts next year. Plus, a look at upcoming budget changes suggests income tax rises are on the horizon. Get ready for a whirlwind of European financial dynamics!