At Any Rate Global FX and Commodities: The bullish case for gold, the bearish case for USD ex-yen and the shutdown showdown
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Oct 10, 2025 
Junya Tanase, a Senior FX strategist at J.P. Morgan, provides insights on Japan's political landscape and its implications for the yen. He discusses the recent LDP leadership change and potential market impacts, including risks of currency intervention. The conversation also covers gold's rapid rally, driven by central bank strategies and supply issues. Additionally, the team analyzes the current U.S. government shutdown and its looming economic repercussions, possibly affecting market stability and data visibility.
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Structural Shift In Gold Demand
- Gold's price drivers shifted after 2022 from real yields to structural buyers like central banks and sovereign funds.
- Limited supply plus emerging large buyers can push gold toward $6,000 over the coming years.
Gold Decoupled From Real Yields
- The historical gold–US real yield correlation broke down after 2022 due to geopolitical actions and central bank buying.
- That breakdown means gold can rally even with rising real yields, changing hedging dynamics.
Small Flows, Big Gold Moves
- A modest reallocation (0.5%) from $60tn in foreign U.S. assets into gold could drive prices materially higher.
- Gold's small, price‑inelastic supply amplifies even modest demand shocks sharply.