Explore the evolution of emerging markets as an asset class, revealing how sovereign debt levels surged without mass defaults post-pandemic. Dive into the resilience of credit ratings amid global challenges and the unique dynamics of sovereign defaults. The podcast also examines restructuring efforts, especially the increasing influence of creditors like China and Saudi Arabia. Finally, it highlights the shifts in emerging market debt and the significance of fiscal consolidation in the face of rising interest rates.

US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally. Speaker: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.   Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4842530-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

FX markets are finally behaving as expected post-US elections. Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the path ahead and outline why the FX moves are not yet done.   This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4846770-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840487-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Derivative Strategy at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. He discusses the effects of policy uncertainty on bond futures, shedding light on how investor positioning impacts market expectations. The conversation dives into the implications of recent macroeconomic developments, including the Federal Reserve's actions and the U.S. presidential elections, and how these factors influence calendar spreads and delivery risks in Treasury futures.

The discussion kicks off with the U.S. elections and their impact on the dollar's exceptionalism. Experts highlight how USD outshines other currencies with higher yields and growth potential. They delve into the immediate market reactions following significant electoral outcomes and forecast policy implications. The chatter shifts to tariffs and the Fed's decisions in response to market shifts. There's also an exploration of the yuan's dynamics amidst trade tensions and how European currencies are influenced by evolving economic sentiments and central bank strategies.

Dive into the turbulent waters of European rate markets influenced by recent U.S. election results and significant central bank meetings. Explore the sharp shifts in the German yield curve and the implications of political changes in Germany. Discover how these factors are reshaping European credit spreads and funding rates across the region. Examine the effects of the Bank of England's rate cuts and the outlook for future policy shifts amid a complex economic landscape. It's a captivating discussion filled with insights from market experts!

The initial post-election sell-off in gold ran counter to both our and consensus expectations. We think it’s much more about near-term position squaring than a break in our thesis that a Republican sweep of government will likely continue to fuel further upside for gold in 2025 as the debasement trade rumbles on.  Base metals prices have swung dramatically following the election. While there will likely eventually be a good risk/reward set up to add length in base metals again in the coming quarters we don’t think we are there yet and are more cautious on base metals prices over the coming weeks. Following the Trump election victory, Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research, outlines our outlook for metals from here.   Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 8, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4838877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

After the recent U.S. election, market reactions in emerging markets reveal a mix of currency and credit spread shifts. There's an emphasis on caution regarding future policy uncertainties and their potential impact on U.S. rates and the dollar. The discussion also highlights how tariffs may create vulnerabilities in global markets, particularly for emerging economies, underscoring the need for awareness of possible adverse scenarios from trade wars. Insightful analysis provides a clear picture of current market dynamics.

The discussion centers on how the upcoming US election could shift the dynamics of foreign exchange markets. Strategists examine potential scenarios, including a Republican sweep and its likely impact on the dollar. Predictions for key currency pairs are highlighted, with particular insights into the Australian dollar amid China-related uncertainties. The conversation also dives into the state of the GBP post-budget announcement and the effects of recent economic concerns, including fluctuations in guilt yields.