At Any Rate

Anezka Christovova, a leading expert in EM FX and local rates, and Ben Ramsey, head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy, dive into the dynamic world of emerging markets. They discuss how stronger global growth is reshaping the EM landscape and the potential vulnerabilities for EM currencies amid a delayed Fed strategy. Anezka highlights the impact of commodity prices on exporters like South Africa and Chile, while Ben addresses how US market trends could affect EM sovereign spreads and the ongoing uncertainty in Argentina’s credit situation.

Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins Ipek Ozil to discuss pivotal changes in money market rates. They delve into the transition from EFFR to TGCR, highlighting TGCR's advantages as a more comprehensive benchmark. The duo analyzes recent funding volatility, particularly around corporate tax day, and explores the implications for quantitative tightening and reserve management. Their insights on repo dynamics and market behaviors provide a fascinating look at the future of U.S. rates.

Discussion revolves around the fluctuating confidence in the dollar and the impacts of systematic signals amid recent US and German data. They delve into how carry strategies post-COVID have shown resilience and the struggles of momentum trades due to low dispersion in various markets. The potential effects of a US government shutdown on payroll data are highlighted, including risks to dollar strength. Additionally, the speakers analyze EUR/USD upside risks tied to geopolitical tensions and AI-driven capital expenditure trends.

A substantial supply disruption at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has caused a stir in the copper market, leading to a bullish forecast. The loss is estimated at approximately 200,000 tons in late 2025 and 270,000 tons into 2026, flipping the market balance from surplus to deficit. With tight fundamentals and increasing Chinese demand, copper prices are projected to reach around $11,250 per metric ton. The potential for investor inflows and macroeconomic trends further support this optimistic outlook.

Khagendra Gupta, a Rates strategist at J.P. Morgan specializing in Nordic markets, joins Francis Diamond to dive into the latest central bank decisions impacting Scandinavia. They dissect the Riksbank's recent 25bp cut and its implications for core inflation and Swedish yields. Khagendra also sheds light on an unexpected Norges Bank cut and its forecast shift. The duo wraps up discussing the potential ripple effects of UK political dynamics on rates, highlighting that current Labour leadership speculation is unlikely to cause immediate market reactions.

Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EDGE at J.P. Morgan, shares insights from the Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference. Katherine Marney, a senior economist, discusses improving fundamentals in frontier economies, including falling inflation and fiscal reforms. Gbolahan Taiwo provides a vibrant perspective on African sovereigns, highlighting Uganda's fiscal improvements and Angola's reforms. They also explore investor interest in Nigeria, Zambia, and Ukraine, while touching on key political dynamics in Latin America.

In this enlightening discussion, Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, shares his insights on commodity market dynamics. He explores the implications of the Fed's rate cuts and the diverse outcomes they might produce. Shearer highlights the risks of recession and inflation, drawing connections between these factors and commodity performance. The duo also looks at historical trends, emphasizing how a robust growth environment could significantly boost returns in commodities like gold and energy.

Patrick Locke, a Senior FX strategist at JPMorgan, and James Nelligan, also a Senior FX strategist from London, discuss the aftermath of DM central bank Superweek. Locke dives into the Fed's dovish tone and its effects on currency trends, exploring pro-cyclical FX and opportunities in emerging markets. Nelligan analyzes the hawkish stance of Norges Bank and the fiscal challenges facing the UK, shedding light on how these factors influence European currency fair value and upcoming shifts in the SNB and Riksbank.

Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy, shares his insights on pivotal central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ. He elaborates on the Fed's 25bp cut and its implications for U.S. rates, suggesting higher and steeper yields ahead. The conversation delves into the BoE's monetary stance and the hawkish signals from the BoJ, along with what these moves mean for the European and Japanese markets. Tune in for a compelling look at how developed markets are reacting to these shifts!

US and European rates strategists dive into August's inflation data and share their insights on future trends. They discuss the lack of movement in Euro area breakevens due to limited catalysts while underlining a supportive environment for US breakevens. Phoebe emphasizes the potential for US inflation to accelerate in Q4, influenced by recent dovish shifts from the Fed and various political factors. The conversation offers a detailed analysis of the inflation landscape, providing a compelling outlook for both regions.