At Any Rate

Saad Siddiqui, an Emerging Markets Strategist at JPMorgan, joins Jonny Goulden to dissect the latest trends in EM fixed income following U.S.-China tariff reductions. They delve into the impacts of trade dynamics on emerging market currencies, revealing how global factors shape their relationship with the U.S. dollar. The conversation highlights the evolving credit outlook for emergent corporates and examines recession probabilities. Siddiqui's insights offer a fresh perspective on navigating market conditions in today's complex environment.

Haibin Zhu, Chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, and Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan economist at J.P. Morgan, discuss the recent temporary roll-back of tariffs between the U.S. and China and its effects on Asia's economies. They explore the potential permanence of this truce and the implications for trade with Japan and Korea. The conversation dives into the complexities of trade negotiations, currency accords, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, highlighting regional challenges and cautious optimism for recovery amidst geopolitical tensions.

Three strategists dive into the latest insights from the Fed meeting and tariff announcements, predicting a decline in Treasury yields as labor data worsens. They highlight a healthy funding market, pointing out the influence of stablecoins on T-bill dynamics and swap spreads. Discussions touch on the impact of regulatory changes and macroeconomic factors on inflation, framing a complex picture of the financial landscape. With cautious optimism, they consider how these trends may signal a shift in market sentiment.

In this insightful discussion, Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of FX Strategy at JPMorgan, shares his expertise on the evolving Asian FX market and highlights the effects of recent volatility. Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategist at JPMorgan, explores the implications of the US-UK trade deal, emphasizing its limited impact on the British pound. Together, they navigate the intricacies of currency dynamics, central bank policies, and trade negotiations, providing a captivating glimpse into the future of global currencies.

Aditya Chordia, a European Rates Strategist at JP Morgan, and Khagendra Gupta, also a European Rates Strategist there, dive into the nuances of the European rates markets. They discuss the intriguing impact of de-dollarization, shifting demand for Eurozone bonds, and the implications for German yields. The conversation also covers recent developments from the Bank of England, expected economic indicators, and interest rate decisions from the Riksbank and Norges Bank, shedding light on the current market landscape and investment strategies.

In this insightful conversation, Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research at J.P. Morgan, shares his expertise on the evolving gold market. He discusses the growing interest in gold among international investors, especially amid concerns over U.S. asset stability. The episode delves into the hypothetical scenario where a mere 0.5% shift of foreign U.S. assets into gold could push prices up to $6,000. Shearer emphasizes the significant potential returns and the structural bullish outlook for gold amid changing market dynamics.

Jemmy Huang, a senior coverage analyst focused on Taiwan's financial sector, teams up with Mixo Das, an Asia equity and quant strategist, to dissect the recent 6% drop in the Taiwan dollar and its impact on regional markets. They explore Taiwan's life insurers' FX strategies amid currency volatility and the implications for equity prices in tech sectors. The duo examines cautious investor sentiments post-DeepSeek and compares Taiwan's and Korea’s equity resilience, while offering insights into emerging markets and the changing dynamics of APAC bonds.

Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joins Jay Barry to dissect the latest trends in U.S. employment and its impact on economic forecasts. They dive into the Treasury's recent refunding announcement and its effect on foreign exchange markets. The conversation shifts to how Japan's finance minister's comments on U.S. Treasury holdings could affect trade dynamics. The duo also analyzes dollar fluctuations against Asian currencies and the broader implications for other currencies in this uncertain economic landscape.

In this engaging discussion, Arindam Sandilya, co-head of FX strategy in Singapore, dives into the surprising decline of the USD against the Taiwanese dollar and its ripple effects on Asian currencies. He analyzes shifts in the Chinese Yuan's role in global markets and how recent tariff changes impact the US dollar among G10 currencies. Sandilya also shares insights on central bank policies, specifically the European Central Bank and Bank of England, and their implications for currency valuation. A must-listen for FX enthusiasts!

Explore the complexities of the oil market as it navigates deregulation and tariff changes. Discover how OPEC+ faces challenges from non-OPEC supply and the evolving strategies of oil-producing nations. Delve into the implications of energy consumption trends on U.S. tourism and inflation. Gain insights into the surge in production from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, and how major oil companies are influencing market dynamics and future supply forecasts.