At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Frontier Markets Focus
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Sep 23, 2025 Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EDGE at J.P. Morgan, shares insights from the Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference. Katherine Marney, a senior economist, discusses improving fundamentals in frontier economies, including falling inflation and fiscal reforms. Gbolahan Taiwo provides a vibrant perspective on African sovereigns, highlighting Uganda's fiscal improvements and Angola's reforms. They also explore investor interest in Nigeria, Zambia, and Ukraine, while touching on key political dynamics in Latin America.
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Selective Optimism In Frontier Markets
- Investors show cautious optimism and prefer selective, bottom-up frontier exposures over broad credit positions.
- They shift to local markets (e.g., Nigeria, Egypt, Kazakhstan, DR, Costa Rica) where fundamentals look more attractive.
Fundamentals Improve, Ratings Lag
- Frontier economies are improving on growth, disinflation, FX and fiscal reforms, raising investor interest.
- Rating agencies remain cautious and want longer track records before turning more positive on upgrades.
Packed Meetings For African Sovereigns
- African sovereign meetings at the conference were consistently full and well attended across both new and incumbent issuers.
- Investors pressed sovereigns on reform durability and demand for new issuance remained high.