At Any Rate

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui explore the shifting dynamics of Emerging Market Fixed Income, focusing on the effects of recent tariff changes and global economic implications. They discuss varying investor sentiments towards emerging markets, highlighting which countries are favored or frowned upon. The podcast also analyzes the performance of emerging market currencies amid rising risk aversion and the complex outlook for interest rates. Ultimately, they look at how expected rate cuts could reshape the landscape for credit spreads and market resilience.

Sajjid Chinoy, Rajiv Batra and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro, equity and fixed income markets in the wake of the IMF / WB meetings in Washington DC last week This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data. Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

James Nelligan, a Global FX Strategist at JPMorgan, shares insights on the recent surge of the EUR/USD to 1.20. He discusses how U.S. economic trends and Europe's fiscal policies are shaping currency valuations. The conversation shifts to the UK's fiscal challenges and the impact of rising defense spending in the eurozone. Nelligan highlights the complexities of currency ratings, the strengths and weaknesses of the euro amidst market volatility, and the balance of optimism and caution in the euro's future.

The podcast dives into the surprising decline of Brent oil prices, driven by investor anxiety and recession fears. It highlights the challenges facing U.S. shale producers as break-even costs come under pressure, influencing drilling budgets and production levels. Projections reveal a significant cut in crude production by 2026, impacting market stability. OPEC+ strategies to retain market share amidst these fluctuations are explored, raising questions about future pricing dynamics and interventions.

Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, shares insights on the changing dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market. He discusses the anticipated gas-to-coal switching trends in summer 2025 and the potential price impacts due to weather risks. Dgebuadze also highlights expected production increases in 2026 that may stabilize prices. Additionally, he touches on how recession risks might influence future demand and supply in this fluctuating energy landscape.

Arindam Sandilya, Co-head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan, offers insights into the recent turbulence in currency markets. He discusses the rise of the Eurodollar to a three-year high and its implications for the U.S. dollar's strength. The conversation shifts to complexities in U.S.-China trade relations and the evolving perceptions of U.S. assets. Arindam also navigates the dollar's performance against emerging markets and explores its long-term status as a safe haven amidst ongoing economic volatility.

Jay Barry is the Head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan, while Srini Ramaswamy leads their Global Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy. They delve into the recent historic volatility in US rates markets, spurred by tariff impacts and liquidity concerns. The duo discusses the surprising stability in cash/futures basis despite declining overall market liquidity. They unravel complexities in swap spreads and analyze the unexpected drop in core CPI, exploring how these trends could influence future economic risks and Federal Reserve actions.

Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Asia Economist at JP Morgan, shares his expertise on the evolving economic landscape in emerging markets post-Liberation Day. He discusses the implications of recent U.S. tariffs on Asian growth and explores how policymakers are responding with various tools. The conversation highlights challenges in U.S.-China relations and their impact on trade dynamics. Additionally, Chinoy delves into currency exchange rates and the intricacies of Asian financial markets, emphasizing key risk factors to watch.

In this engaging discussion, fluctuations in global commodity markets take center stage, highlighting how tariff changes impact gold and crude oil prices. The conversation pivots to concerns over a potential U.S. recession, delving into its implications for agricultural markets. Key crops like corn, wheat, and sugar are examined, revealing how economic factors shape trade flows. The insights provide a clear view of the interconnectedness of global trade and the agriculture sector.