We cut through the noise to explore the policies that will be prioritized by any new administration, regardless of the election outcome, and asses their implications for commodities markets. The top priority for both administrations is to ensure the security of supply in energy and minerals and to lower energy prices to curb inflation. Debasement trades are likely to perform well under any administration, though could get further supercharged under a Republican sweep. Gold stands out as the commodity of choice for hedging the US elections.   Speakers:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 1, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832733-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Afonso Borges, a seasoned U.S. rate strategist at J.P. Morgan, joins to dissect the latest Treasury refunding announcement. The discussion highlights the stability of coupon sizes and the growing significance of TIPS auctions. They delve into the introduction of a shorter-term TIPS benchmark and explore how the Treasury is navigating fiscal projections and strategic management. Additionally, the conversation touches on near-term risks in the rates market, evaluating impacts from employment reports and unforeseen events.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss how EM asset markets are looking ahead of the US election and takeaways from the recent Washington conferences. This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Join Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist, as they delve into the impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on rates markets. They discuss how different electoral outcomes could influence treasury supply and options pricing. The duo also examines the Fed's quantitative tightening, warning of potential risks to financial liquidity. Insights on managing market volatility amidst these changes offer strategies for cautious investment in uncertain times.

In this podcast, we discuss our recently launched default outlook for 2025. Our 2025 EM Corporate HY default forecast is 2.7%. If achieved, it will be another below average default year, extending the improvement trend from 7-14% default rates between 2021-2023. Such default rates would also be modestly below DM credit. Regionally, we expect 3.0% for Asia, 3.4% for Latin America, 2.8% for EM Europe, and 0.5% for Middle East & Africa. In this discussion, we cover the drivers of our sanguine expectations, differentiation by region and segment, as well as risks to our base case expectations.     Speakers Yang-Myung Hong, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy This podcast was recorded on 25 Oct 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this discussion, Greg Fuzesi, Chief Euro Area Economist at JPMorgan, dives into the Eurozone's potential responses to U.S. trade conflicts. He explores how tariffs could impact Eurozone growth, focusing on currency fluctuations and market sentiment. The conversation reveals the structural challenges facing European economies, particularly in manufacturing, and discusses differentiated policy responses from the European Central Bank versus the Federal Reserve. Tune in for serious insights on the interplay between politics and economic stability!

The BCOM Precious Metals Index has continued its year-to-date rally in October, gaining nearly 4% so far this month despite higher US yields and a stronger US dollar.  The continued outperformance in gold and silver comes as markets price in greater odds of a Trump presidency and possible Republican sweep, fueling precious metals length as a hedge against the potential for amplified US fiscal concerns, inflationary concerns and geopolitical/trade tensions.  In this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research, discusses the key takeaways from the 2024 LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference and shares an update on the precious markets as we approach the upcoming US election.   Speaker: Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research   This podcast was recorded on 25, Oct. 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4819507-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.   Speakers:  Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research     This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4811273-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Delve into the Federal Reserve's innovative Reserve Demand Elasticity tool, designed to monitor banking reserves in real time. Discover how the Fed funds market serves as a crucial yet limited gauge of liquidity compared to larger SOFR volumes. The discussion also highlights a recent shift in repo activity, with an uptick in non-Fed transactions. These changes in liquidity dynamics may prompt adjustments in the Federal Reserve's approach to managing market frictions. Tune in for a fascinating exploration of financial strategies!

During this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Tracey Allen, head of agricultural research will discuss takeaways from London Sugar Week and share an update on the state of agri markets and risks to watch out for following World Food Day on 16 October.   Speaker: Tracey Allen, Head of Global Agricultural Research     This podcast was recorded on 18, October, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818658-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810174-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.