At Any Rate Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for September 2025
Sep 11, 2025
Dive into the interplay between tech cycles and recession risks impacting global economies. Discover how inflation and central bank policies in emerging markets shape financial landscapes. Listen as experts discuss the political risks affecting market dynamics while showcasing the potential strength of carry currencies against the dollar. Gain insights into investment strategies within the evolving fixed income and forex sectors amid U.S. economic uncertainty. This discussion sheds light on the opportunities and challenges ahead for emerging markets.
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Export-Led EM Resilience
- EM growth resilience is driven mainly by stronger-than-expected exports, especially tech-related exports from North Asia.
- Nora Szentivanyi warns US and tariff risks still leave a ~40% recession probability for the US.
Disinflation Permits EM Cuts
- Disinflation and earlier currency strength make EM policy stances still overly tight by many measures.
- Nora Szentivanyi expects continued EM rate cuts unless the US dollar suddenly strengthens sharply.
Use Fed Language To Time EM Easing
- Watch the Fed's September language closely because dovish guidance could accelerate EM easing.
- Use Fed guidance to time EM central-bank-sensitive trades, as Nora Szentivanyi suggests.