At Any Rate

Recent tariff announcements have shaken up G10 and Emerging Market currencies, leading to notable market reactions like equity sell-offs. As recession fears grow, the U.S. dollar's attractiveness shifts amidst declining real yields. The podcast highlights safe haven currencies like the yen and franc, while emerging markets face mounting challenges. Discussions also include how trade ties influence economic stress in Asia, revealing potential vulnerabilities. Future negotiations may alter the trade landscape, impacting various currencies further.

This discussion delves into the unexpected impacts of recent US tariff announcements on the European rates market. Fluctuations in German yields signal rising recession risks, complicating economic forecasts. The widening of Boondester spreads is examined, highlighting fiscal policies and market sentiment. Additionally, the podcast explores how tariff influences shape intra-EMU spreads and inflation dynamics, reflecting the divergence between European and US inflation trends amidst global uncertainty.

The latest trends in U.S. financial markets unfold as experts navigate the complexities of data and Federal Reserve policies. They dive into how inflation forecasts and tariff uncertainties reshape market dynamics, especially in swap markets. The wide-ranging effects of upcoming regulatory changes on swap spreads and treasury demand are scrutinized. Additionally, factors influencing front-end swap spreads come into play, shedding light on upcoming financial milestones and the resilience of the banking system.

Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies in the wake of the auto-sector tariffs and ahead of the big April 2nd tariff announcement by the US administration.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Freezing of Russian foreign assets has triggered a structural change in the demand for gold, and the shift in US foreign policy from Pax Americana to Pax Trumpiana has accelerated and broadened gold ownership. Traditionally, with large above-ground stocks of gold acting as a pool of supply, gold prices have been largely determined by the relative strength of demand. However, to meet this increased demand, a structural response, which so far has been constrained, from the supply side is necessary. After the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold took 38 years to surpass $1,000 in March 2008. It reached $2,000 in August 2020, doubling in 12 years. The pace accelerated, breaking $3,000 on March 14, 2025, in just under five years. With each $1,000 phase taking two-thirds less time, could $4,000 be next?   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4924668-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets, focusing on Euro rates markets into the 2 April tariff announcement, thoughts on SSAs and issuance, Scandi rates following recent CB meetings and UK rates in light of this week’s Spring Statement.   This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4942101-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2025. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Virginia Martin Heriz, Global Head of ESG Methodology and Integration at JPMorgan Research, and Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy and Integration, share insights on the booming EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class, now worth $1.4 trillion. They discuss the surge in green bonds, corporate issuances, and 'Greenium' in this sector. The duo dives into the importance of water security and biodiversity in sustainable debt, as well as innovative financial mechanisms like debt for nature swaps that are paving the way for a greener future.

Francis Diamond and Phoebe White delve into the fascinating world of inflation markets. They discuss the conflicting trends in DM inflation breakevens, with European rates rising due to Germany's fiscal shifts. Meanwhile, US breakevens appear to be undervalued, presenting unique opportunities. The duo also analyzes the UK’s inflation, driven by surging energy prices, and its implications on central bank policies. A captivating exploration of global economic dynamics awaits!

Patrick Locke, an FX strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan, and James Nelligan, an expert on European FX markets, delve into the upcoming tariff announcements and their implications for currency markets. They explore how dollar trends and geopolitical tensions influence investor concerns. The discussion highlights the intricate relationship between tariffs and central bank decisions, particularly in Europe, along with a look at the impact on specific companies like Stocky and Nokia amidst inflation uncertainties. Their insights offer a nuanced view of the FX landscape.