This week dives into the shifting tides of the foreign exchange market, focusing on the euro-dollar dynamic and the impact of Asia's currency movements. Recent rate cuts by the ECB are analyzed, revealing market reactions and inflation implications. There's a look at the UK's economic indicators and the Bank of England's policy outlook against a backdrop of rising energy costs. The disconnect between European and UK monetary strategies is explored, alongside insights into the performance of the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting, funding dynamics and swap spreads as the UK budget at the end of this month. This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817582-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their takeaways from the September CPI report, the recent volatility in rates and inflation markets, and thoughts on Fed balance sheet policy following the most recent FOMC meeting minutes. With Treasury valuations somewhat cheap and positioning now short, we think yields have limited further room to rise. Inflation breakeven should also find stability though risks remain two-sided at these levels.   Speakers: Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Phoebe White ,Fixed Income Strategy   This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report athttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4815265-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We run through the expected impact on FX from different US election outcome scenarios and we provide an overview of relevant FX hedges. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4812241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

It took an escalation in Iran-Israel tensions and the optimism generated by the Chinese government’s stimulus efforts to lift oil out of its three-month downward trajectory.  Nevertheless, sustaining bullish price momentum in oil has proven to be a high maintenance task: without additional catalysts, the ‘war’ and ‘stimulus’ premiums have been prone to fading. While possible, Israel is likely to avoid Iranian oil infrastructure. Conversely, the rising expectations for RMB 2 trn fiscal stimulus are likely to be met.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 11, October, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4814501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss how this week’s labor markets data shift the debate over Fed policy, and how greater policy uncertainty has implications for the rates, curve and vol. They also discuss recent developments in funding markets and the implications for Quantitative Tightening   Speakers: Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy Srini Ramaswamy ,Co-Head, US Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809111-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810186-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4807300-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party  

Oil prices have been moving higher as the market anticipates Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike earlier this week. Since last October, we have recommended selling geopolitical premium in oil, this time, however, it feels different. We assume that attacking Iran’s energy facilities would not be Israel’s preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran’s possible escalation. We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries. Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inventories, the odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved. Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The valley of the dollar smile proved to be treacherous after all, with payrolls and other strong US data catapulting us back into US exceptionalism. Our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for currency markets following the strong jobs data, including impacts on the broad dollar and funding currencies as well as recent developments in European FX. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809182-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the evolving macro backdrop and how geopolitical events can impact EM assets. Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Is China’s policy blitz a game-changer for commodities and FX? We discuss the read-through. Maintain bearish oil and bullish copper forecasts. On paper, this should be the valley of the dollar smile but upcoming US election makes this an uncomfortable proposition. SNB didn’t push back on CHF strength, which is a green light for more appreciation.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy  Tracey Allen, Global Commodities Research  Greg Shearer, Global Commodities Research   James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803864-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.