At Any Rate Global FX: Systematic signals, payrolls/ shutdown, risks to EUR/USD, AI-FX links
17 snips
Sep 26, 2025 Discussion revolves around the fluctuating confidence in the dollar and the impacts of systematic signals amid recent US and German data. They delve into how carry strategies post-COVID have shown resilience and the struggles of momentum trades due to low dispersion in various markets. The potential effects of a US government shutdown on payroll data are highlighted, including risks to dollar strength. Additionally, the speakers analyze EUR/USD upside risks tied to geopolitical tensions and AI-driven capital expenditure trends.
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Lower-Intensity, Data-Driven Dollar Regime
- FX markets have shifted to a low-intensity, data-dependent regime driven by US data and muted Fed-driven volatility.
- The macro backdrop still favours dollar weakness, but conviction is low and outcomes depend on incoming US releases.
Systematic Signals Lose Edge
- Systematic momentum signals have lost dispersion across G10, reducing RV trade opportunities.
- Carry and balance-sheet/fiscal-based baskets outperform but offer lower diversification and higher correlation to risk assets.
Be Defensive With Carry Exposure
- Avoid over-relying on vanilla carry for diversification because its beta to equities and short-vol trades is elevated.
- Prefer defensive carry implementations or fiscal/external-balance baskets for resilience.