At Any Rate Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity
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Sep 26, 2025 A substantial supply disruption at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has caused a stir in the copper market, leading to a bullish forecast. The loss is estimated at approximately 200,000 tons in late 2025 and 270,000 tons into 2026, flipping the market balance from surplus to deficit. With tight fundamentals and increasing Chinese demand, copper prices are projected to reach around $11,250 per metric ton. The potential for investor inflows and macroeconomic trends further support this optimistic outlook.
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Grasberg Mud Rush And Market Surprise
- Freeport's Grasberg mine suffered a tragic mud rush and was suspended on 8 September, creating initial uncertainty about production loss.
- On 24 September Freeport updated the market with a much larger expected disruption, surprising prices and participants.
Material Losses Flip Supply Growth To Contraction
- The disruption equals roughly 200,000 metric tons lost in Q4 2025 and ~270,000 tons in 2026 during a prolonged ramp-up.
- That shift flips J.P. Morgan's supply-growth view from near 0% to a contraction and tightens an already constrained market.
Market Moves From Balance To Notable Deficits
- The refined copper market shifts from modest surplus/balance to a deficit of ~135,000 t in 2025 and ~180,000 t in 2026.
- The 2026 shortfall would be the largest deficit since 2022, signalling acute tightness ahead.