At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Wake me up when September starts
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Sep 4, 2025 Finnish-born Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey, both from JP Morgan’s emerging market strategy team, dive into the shifting landscape of emerging markets post-summer. They discuss the impact of U.S. labor market data on growth expectations and investment strategies. Key insights include Bolivia’s political optimism, Venezuela’s uncertainties amid IMF talks, and Argentina’s challenges ahead of elections. The duo also analyzes sovereign credit spreads and the potential recovery in fund flows across Asia, EMEA, and LATAM, emphasizing how political developments shape market fundamentals.
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Upward Growth Revisions Lift EM Outlook
- Global growth revisions trended up over the summer, reducing the expected second-half slump risk.
- That lifts EM prospects and makes local markets relatively more attractive versus credit.
Fed Easing + Better Growth Helps Local EM
- Fed communication since Jackson Hole has opened the door to a September cut, and markets price it in.
- That combination of firmer growth and Fed easing is a constructive backdrop for EM, especially local markets.
Position Selectively Ahead Of Payrolls
- Watch the US payrolls print for its FX and carry impact, especially on low-yielders and NNIP flows.
- Position selectively: mid-yielders likely outperform if payrolls show moderation.