Global Commodities: Cocoa demand crunch not as bitter as feared

With Halloween around the corner, one of the peak seasons for chocolate and confectionery demand, cocoa prices have corrected sharply lower, down -20% MOM and YTD losses are approaching -40%, after historic gains through 2025. This week, the final-quarter demand side data for the 2024/25 season arrived, and the 3Q grind was generally better than expected – albeit still historically weak. It will, however, take some time before consumers start to see the declining input costs of chocolate production hit their hip pocket. But there are strong indications that perhaps the worst of the cocoa market crunch is over, and that industry can plan with a little more confidence than in recent years.

Speaker:

Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 17 October 2025.

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